You Can Beat the Wall Street Pros

Better Investing

What's Hot


2 Types of Black Marks Might Vanish From Your Credit File SoonBorrow

6 Ways the Obamacare Overhaul Might Impact Your WalletInsurance

7 Dumb and Costly Moves Homebuyers MakeBorrow

This Free Software Brings Old Laptops Back to LifeMore

Obamacare Replacement Plan Gets ‘F’ Rating from Consumer ReportsFamily

Beware These 12 Common Money MistakesCredit & Debt

21 Restaurants Offering Free Food Right NowSaving Money

17 Ways to Have More Fun for Less MoneySave

House Hunters: Beware of These 6 Mortgage MistakesBorrow

30 Household Uses for Baby OilSave

25 Ways to Spend Less on FoodMore

Nearly Half of Heart-Related Deaths Linked to These 10 Foods and IngredientsFamily

5 Surprising Benefits of Exercising Outdoors in WinterFamily

10 Ways to Save When You’re Making Minimum WageSave

Boost Your Credit Score Fast With These 7 MovesCredit & Debt

7 Painless Ways to Pay Off Your Mortgage Years EarlierBorrow

The Most Sinful City in the U.S. Is … (Hint: It’s Not Vegas)Family

The True Cost of Bad CreditCredit & Debt

10 Companies With the Best 401(k) PlansGrow

This Scam Now Tops ID Theft as the No. 2 Consumer ComplaintFamily

6 Stores With Awesome Reward ProgramsFamily

6 Ways to Save More at Lowe’s and The Home DepotSave

6 Healthful Treats for Your DogFamily

New Study Ranks the Best States in the U.S.Family

Thousands of Millionaires Moving to 1 Country — and Leaving AnotherGrow

Strapped for College Costs? How to Get the Most From FAFSABorrow

6 Overlooked Ways to Save at Chick-fil-AFamily

Ask Stacy: What’s the Fastest Way to Pay Off My Mortgage?Borrow

Where to Sell Your Stuff for Top DollarAround The House

8 Ways to Get a Good Price on a Shiny New AutoCars

Ask Stacy: How Do I Start Over?Credit & Debt

Secret Cell Plans: Savings Verizon, AT&T, T-Mobile and Sprint Don’t Want You to Know AboutFamily

30 Awesome Things to Do in RetirementCollege

14 Super Smart Ways to Save on TravelSave

The Rich Prefer Modest Cars — Should You Join Them?Cars

You’ll Soon Pay More to Shop at CostcoSave

10 Ways to Save When Your Teen Starts DrivingFamily

For nearly a decade, Money Talks News has collected market predictions from Wall Street pros and average Joes. Guess who's usually more accurate?

This time of year we hear a lot of noise about how the economy and the markets are going to look 12 months from now – even more so when there’s an election in November.

Predictions can be interesting, even important, but are nothing to base investment decisions on.

At Money Talks News, we’ve been doing a little experiment for seven years now. And here’s what we’ve found: Experts are no better than anyone else when it comes to predicting the future. In fact, in many cases, your guess isn’t as good as theirs, it’s better.

See for yourself. In the video below, Money Talks founder Stacy Johnson resurrects year-old video containing 2011 predictions from David Wyss, the Harvard-Ph.D. chief economist of Standard & Poor’s, as well as random people he literally stopped on the street.

Score another one for Main Street – their predictions win again. Here’s a recap of the answers we got versus reality, with the median used when they gave a range. We’ll also include Stacy’s predictions from last year for fun:

Stocks

Expert: Up 10 percent
Non-expert: Down 8 percent
Stacy: Up 12 percent
Reality: Up 5 percent
Winner: Expert (5 percentage points off). Note: This outcome depends on how you measure the market. The 5-percent return above refers to the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Switch the standard of measure to the S&P 500 and the market was virtually unchanged for the year, meaning the man on the street wins.

Oil

Expert: $85
Man on the street: $100
Stacy: $110
Reality: $100 on the last trading day of the year
Winner: Man on the street (on the money)

Housing

Expert: Up 0 percent
Non-expert: Down 4.5 percent
Stacy: Up 3 percent
Reality: Down 4 percent according to the S&P Home Price Index
Winner: Man on the street (half a percentage point off)

So Main Street wins at least two out of three against Wall Street, and by a wide margin of accuracy. And they beat Stacy’s guesses too. Of course this isn’t a scientific study, but why does it happen?

It’s not that Main Street is smarter – they get it wrong sometimes too. In 2008, neither the pros nor average folks came close to predicting the stock market would plummet 30 percent.

As Stacy said this time last year, “The truth is that the variables that influence the price of stocks, housing, and oil are numerous, complex, and, ultimately, unknowable.” Just like the weather, the experts are probably a lot better than us at reading the signs a few days out. But a year out? It’s anybody’s guess – including yours.

We’ll be carrying on the experiment for next year too. Check back Wednesday for our story looking at 2012 predictions from Wall Street and Main Street.

Stacy Johnson

It's not the usual blah, blah, blah

I know... every site you visit wants you to subscribe to their newsletter. But our news and advice is actually worth reading! For 25 years, I've been making people richer without making their eyes glaze over. You'll be glad you did. I guarantee it!

💰🗣📰

Read Next: 8 Great Travel Freebies You Can Get in 2017

Check Out Our Hottest Deals!

We're always adding new deals and coupons that'll save you big bucks. See the deals to the right and hundreds more in our Deals section.

Click here to explore 2,018 more deals!