Economists’ Prediction for 2011? Not Great, But Not Bad

If you’re worried about a double-dip recession next year, don’t. But if you’re expecting a big recovery, you might be disappointed.

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According to this story from CNN/Money, there’s good news and not-so-good news for the year ahead.

In a recent poll by Blue Chip Economic Indicators, economists said our economy will grow by 2.5% next year. Which means the majority of economists don’t think that 2011 will bring on the double-dip recession that so many have been fretting about.

The not-so-good news? That 2.5% growth rate is below the average historical 3% rate we’re used to. In other words, while we’re not going down the tubes next year, as a nation we’re not recovering all that fast either – which means the unemployment rate will probably remain uncomfortably high. In addition, home prices will remain depressed, thanks to the seemingly never-ending tide of foreclosures.

And then there are the potential flies in the ointment. For example, if the economy gets shaky and could use government action, it probably won’t be forthcoming due to a deadlocked Congress. Slowdowns in the Chinese or European economies could also put the brakes on ours.

So if you’re the type that likes to think of the glass as half-empty, you’re right. But so are those of you who see it as half-full.

What do you think’s going to happen next year? Recovery, recession, a recovery that feels like a recession? Leave me a comment below. And since you made it this far, here’s a reward: an economist joke: (And here’s a bunch more)

Q: How many economists does it take to change a light bulb?
A: Seven plus or minus ten.

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