10 Counties Where Air Quality Is Expected to Get Even Worse

More than 1 million people moved out of U.S. metros at risk for poor air quality during 2021 and 2022 — but not necessarily for that reason.

In terms of net migration, about 1.2 million residents of metros at high risk for poor air quality — largely in the U.S. West — left their states for new homes during those two years, according to a recent Redfin analysis of domestic migration data from the U.S. Census Bureau. The analysis also used air quality risk scores from nonprofit First Street.

However, while declining air quality due to wildfires was likely a factor in these moves, the fact that the region has become such an expensive place to live was probably a bigger driving force behind the relocations, according to Redfin.

As bad as the air quality is today in some places, it may get worse. Redfin and First Street say the following places are likely to see the largest increase in “orange+” or worse air quality days during the next 30 years. “Orange+” indicates the threshold for when the air has become unhealthy for that day.

Pierce County, Washington

Projected number of days with air quality ratings of “orange” or worse in:

• 2024: 31
• 2054: 43 (an increase of 12 days)

Estimated population: 927,000 as of 2022

Pierce County is part of the Seattle and Tacoma metro areas. High costs and wildfire risks are driving some folks away from Seattle, according to Redfin.

It notes that 100% of the homes in Seattle face a high risk from poor air quality.

San Bernardino County, California

Projected number of days with air quality ratings of “orange” or worse in:

• 2024: 45
• 2054: 54 (an increase of nine days)

Estimated population: 2.19 million as of 2022

San Bernardino County itself says the cyclical nature of local fires means you can expect a large wildfire to ignite in the county’s mountains about every 20 years.

The county warns residents of “the need for ongoing vigilance and community resilience in the face of this natural phenomenon.”

Fresno County, California

Projected number of days with air quality ratings of “orange” or worse in:

• 2024: 82
• 2054: 90 (an increase of eight days)

Estimated population: 1.02 million as of 2022

Today, someone living in Fresno can expect more than two months of poor air quality in a particularly bad year, according to the Redfin analysis. By 2054, that will likely increase to three months.

Clackamas County, Oregon

Projected number of days with air quality ratings of “orange” or worse in:

• 2024: 24
• 2054: 32 (an increase of eight days)

Estimated population: 423,000 as of 2022

In 2020, a small fire in the Riverside Campground area erupted and burned around 138,000 acres. It was a reminder of the wildfire danger in the area and how it can impact air quality.

The rest of the top 10

Here are the rest of the counties where air quality is expected to decline in coming decades. Next to each county name is the projected increase in the number of days with air quality ratings of “orange” or worse through 2054:

• Riverside County, California: 7
• Los Angeles County: 7
• Tulare County, California: 7
• Washoe County, Washington: 6
• El Dorado County, California: 6
• Sacramento, County, California: 6