2011 Forecast: Stocks, Housing, Oil Prices

Photo (cc) by Nanagyei

If you saw Monday’s post called Are You Smarter Than Wall Street Experts?, you know that we have an annual tradition here at Money Talks News that includes asking an expert where he thinks stocks, housing, and oil will go in the year ahead. We also stop random people on the street and ask them the same questions – then we check back a year later and see who was closer.

Monday’s post was about looking back to see whether Main Street or Wall Street was closer in 2010. (Spoiler alert: It wasn’t Wall Street.) This post is about getting predictions for 2011 on tape, so we can look back at them this time next January.

Check out the following video and see what a Harvard Ph.D. economist thinks might happen next year, as well as what random strangers on the street think. And while you’re watching, make your own guesses. I’ll make some as well on the other side.

A recap of guesses from both Wall Street and Main Street:

  • Stocks: David Wyss of Standard & Poors says up 10 percent. Our person on the street said down 8 percent.
  • Oil: Wall Street says about where we are now: $90 a barrel. Main Street says $100 a barrel.
  • Housing Prices: Wyss says housing prices will continue their decline into the spring but then turn around and head higher, with the net result for the year being flat. Our person on the said prices will drop a further 4 to 5 percent.

For what it’s worth (not much), here’s what I think:

Stocks: I agree with Wyss on the direction of stocks, but I’m a bit more optimistic. This will come as no surprise if you’ve been following my online portfolio. It’s in the same position as it has been since I assembled it: poised for an economic rebound. While the low-hanging fruit has already been plucked, I think there’s still some money to be made in stocks this year. My precise prediction? Up 12 percent. (For more on how I’ve invested my money, see my recent post, How I Beat the Pants off the Pros Last Year.)

Oil: I’m more inclined to side with Main Street on this one. In fact, I think oil will be $110 per barrel at the end of 2011. Again, this goes with my theme of ongoing economic recovery: See a recent post by fellow writer Michael Koretzky called Gas Prices Going Up Again – and This Time, They Might Not Come Down. And if you’re concerned, also check out my recent post 28 Ways to Save on Gas You Already Know – and Maybe One You Don’t.

Housing: I think 2011 will be the year that housing starts to recover. David Wyss says flat for the year, our man on the street says down – I’ll take the high road and call prices higher by 3 percent. And, as with investing in stocks, I’m planning to put my money where my mouth is. I’ve been looking at foreclosures lately, although I have yet to pull the trigger. For my logic behind higher housing prices, see a post I wrote last July called Why You Should Buy Stocks and Houses Now.

Now that I’ve told you what Wall Street, Main Street, and I think about the future for stocks, oil, and housing, I’ll add one more thing – it’s useless information. As I’ve said many times before, anyone who thinks they can foresee the unforeseeable is either a liar or a fool. The sheer number of variables that can potentially influence financial markets mean that accurate predictions, especially short-term ones, are really nothing more than luck.

To put it more succinctly: Even the blind squirrel finds the occasional acorn.

That being said, I hope you have some opinions of your own, and if they’re strong enough to be called convictions, I hope you’ll act on them. In the meantime, take a minute and join the conversation – tell us below what you think the year holds in store!

Disclosure: The information you read here is always objective. However, we sometimes receive compensation when you click links within our stories.

Read Next
These Are the 4 Best Medicare Advantage Plans for 2020
These Are the 4 Best Medicare Advantage Plans for 2020

Medicare Advantage customers themselves rate these plans highest.

The 5 Worst Home Upgrades for the Money
The 5 Worst Home Upgrades for the Money

These home improvement projects basically never pay off.

14 Things That Are ‘Free’ With Medicare
14 Things That Are ‘Free’ With Medicare

These services could save you money and help prevent costly health problems.

7 Mistakes Guaranteed to Ruin Your Retirement
7 Mistakes Guaranteed to Ruin Your Retirement

Make even one of these money mistakes, and you’ll probably end up eating ramen noodles in your golden years.

7 Reasons You Should Not Claim Social Security Early
7 Reasons You Should Not Claim Social Security Early

The sooner you claim your Social Security retirement benefits, the more you — and perhaps also your spouse — stand to lose. Here are the stakes.

View this page without ads

Help us produce more money-saving articles and videos by subscribing to a membership.

Get Started

Most Popular
11 Things Retirees Should Always Buy at Costco
11 Things Retirees Should Always Buy at Costco

This leader in bulk shopping is a great place to find discounts in the fixed-income years.

Over 50? The CDC Says You Need These 4 Vaccines
Over 50? The CDC Says You Need These 4 Vaccines

Fall is the time to schedule vaccines that can keep you healthy — and even save your life.

11 Senior Discounts for Anyone Age 55 or Older
11 Senior Discounts for Anyone Age 55 or Older

There is no need to wait until you’re 65 to take advantage of so-called “senior” discounts.

9 Things You’ll Never See at Costco Again
9 Things You’ll Never See at Costco Again

The warehouse store offers an enormous selection, but these products aren’t coming back.

8 Things You Can Get for Free at Pharmacies
8 Things You Can Get for Free at Pharmacies

In this age of higher-priced drugs and complex health care systems, a trip to the pharmacy can spark worry. Freebies sure do help.

The 10 Most Commonly Stolen Vehicles in America
The 10 Most Commonly Stolen Vehicles in America

A new model parks atop the list of vehicles that thieves love to pilfer.

9 Deep Discounts Available on Amazon This Friday
9 Deep Discounts Available on Amazon This Friday

These items are all steeply discounted — but the deals won’t last long.

7 Ways to Boost Your Credit Score Fast
7 Ways to Boost Your Credit Score Fast

Your financial security might soon depend upon the strength of your credit score.

19 High-Paying Jobs You Can Get With a 2-Year Degree
19 High-Paying Jobs You Can Get With a 2-Year Degree

These jobs pay more than the typical job in the U.S. — and no bachelor’s degree is required.

20 Things That Are Actually Worth Stockpiling
20 Things That Are Actually Worth Stockpiling

You don’t need a year’s supply of toilet paper to survive an outbreak, but consider stocking up on these items.

10 Reasons Why You Should Actually Retire at 62
10 Reasons Why You Should Actually Retire at 62

If you can, here are several good reasons to retire earlier than we’re told to.

Do This in the Car If You Want to Avoid COVID-19
Do This in the Car If You Want to Avoid COVID-19

It takes just seconds to take this simple preventive measure.

5 Ways to Get Amazon Prime for Free
5 Ways to Get Amazon Prime for Free

Hesitant to drop $119 a year on an Amazon Prime membership? Here’s how to get it for free.

3 Ways to Get Microsoft Office for Free
3 Ways to Get Microsoft Office for Free

With a little ingenuity, you can cut Office costs to zero.

15 Products You Need — Even If You Didn’t Know It
15 Products You Need — Even If You Didn’t Know It

Discover some must-have products on Amazon that you didn’t even know you were missing.

26 States That Do Not Tax Social Security Income
26 States That Do Not Tax Social Security Income

These states won’t tax any of your Social Security income — and in some cases, other types of retirement income.

5 Keys to Making Your Car Last for 200,000 Miles
5 Keys to Making Your Car Last for 200,000 Miles

Pushing your car to 200,000 miles — and beyond — can save you piles of cash. Here’s how to get there.

5 Things That Make Life More Meaningful for Retirees
5 Things That Make Life More Meaningful for Retirees

Retirees agree: These are the things that give them purpose and fulfillment in their golden years.

10 Things You Should Never Do With Bleach
10 Things You Should Never Do With Bleach

Does the pandemic have you reaching for bleach more than ever before? Learn the ins and outs of using this powerful disinfectant.

View More Articles

View this page without ads

Help us produce more money-saving articles and videos by subscribing to a membership.

Get Started

Add a Comment

Our Policy: We welcome relevant and respectful comments in order to foster healthy and informative discussions. All other comments may be removed. Comments with links are automatically held for moderation.