Retailers have spent decades teaching us that Black Friday is the one day when everything hits rock bottom. For a lot of what’s on your list, it isn’t.
Adobe’s holiday forecast, released Sept. 28, breaks its expected discounts down by category — and names the day it expects each one to peak. Black Friday, Nov. 27, wins plenty of them. But not all.
Two caveats before you start clicking. These are forecasts of the deepest discounts Adobe expects off listed prices, not a promise that every item will hit them. And the listed price is whatever the seller says it is. More on that at the end.
Timing still matters. Adobe’s forecast has discounts building as the season goes on, with as much as 14% off in the first part of November, 21% in the days leading into Thanksgiving and 30% during Cyber Week, the five days from Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday.
Run the numbers on a $1,000 laptop. At the 14% early-November ceiling, you’d save $140. At Adobe’s forecast peak for computers, 23%, you’d save $230. That’s $90 for waiting a few weeks — dinner out for two, paid for by patience.
I’ve been writing about money for more than 35 years, and here’s what I’ve learned: The sale calendar is the retailer’s tool. Here’s how to make it yours, category by category.
1. Electronics: Wait for Cyber Monday
Adobe forecasts electronics discounts will top out at 30% below listed prices, basically even with last year’s 30.1%. That’s the deepest category discount in its forecast.
The day to watch isn’t Black Friday. Adobe expects the biggest electronics markdowns on Cyber Monday, Nov. 30.
So if headphones, a smart speaker or a gaming console is on your list, I’d be patient through the weekend. The exception: If a Black Friday price already beats anything you’ve seen for that item, take it and move on.
2. Computers: Cyber Monday, too
Laptops and desktops follow the same pattern. Adobe expects computer discounts to peak at 23%, a hair above last year’s 22.8%, with the best prices landing on Cyber Monday.
That’s where the $90 in the laptop example comes from. A doorbuster on Black Friday morning might look tempting, but the forecast says the better odds are three days later.
3. Sporting goods: Shop on Thanksgiving
Here’s the one that surprises people. Adobe says Thanksgiving Day should bring the best deals on sporting goods, with discounts peaking around 19%, down slightly from 19.5% a year ago.
Adobe expects Americans to spend $6.9 billion online on Thanksgiving, up 8.5%, and it credits part of that to impulse buying.
That’s the trap. If you need a bike, a set of weights or new golf clubs, make the list before dinner and buy only what’s on it. The stuff you didn’t plan for is what turns a deal into a bill.
4. Toys: Black Friday is the day
Toys are one of only two categories where Adobe expects bigger discounts than last year, up to 29%, compared with 28%. And it pegs Black Friday as the best day to buy them.
Adobe also expects Black Friday to be the season’s second-biggest online shopping day, at $12.9 billion. That means a lot of people chasing the same hot items.
If the toy your grandkid wants is in stock at a good price, I wouldn’t gamble on it still being there Monday. And don’t assume you have to wait until Nov. 27. Plenty of stores kick off their deals early, and here are the dates for the big stores’ Black Friday sales.
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5. TVs: Black Friday, with slightly smaller cuts
Adobe also puts TVs in the Black Friday column. But don’t expect last year’s prices to repeat. It forecasts TV discounts peaking at 23%, down from 24.2%.
A little over a percentage point doesn’t sound like much. On a $700 set, though, it’s roughly $8 — not a reason to skip the purchase, but a reason not to assume this year’s deal automatically beats last year’s.
6. Clothing: Black Friday
Apparel discounts are forecast to peak at 23%, nearly identical to last year’s 23.2%, and Adobe expects the best of them on Black Friday.
Clothing is the category where a great price can still be a bad buy. Before you load a cart with gifts, check the return window and who pays return shipping. A sweater in the wrong size isn’t a bargain if you pay to send it back.
7. Appliances and furniture: Black Friday, smallest discounts
These are your biggest-ticket items, and Adobe expects them to carry the smallest discounts on its list with a peak of 18% for each. Both are down from last year, appliances from 19.2% and furniture from 19%. Black Friday is when Adobe expects prices to bottom out.
Big purchases are also where the “pay in four easy installments” button shows up. Adobe expects buy now, pay later to account for $21.3 billion in online spending in November and December, up 6.6%, with $1.09 billion of it on Cyber Monday alone.
Before you split a couch into payments, run the math on paying over time.
If you’d rather keep it on one card you already manage, a card with a 0% introductory rate can do the same job; you can compare cards here. Either way, have a plan to pay it off before the promo ends.
And if that dresser doesn’t ship when promised, know that federal law can let you cancel a late order for a full refund.
Bottom line: Check the price history first
Every percentage in this story is a discount off a listed price. The problem is that listed prices move.
Consumer Reports, which tracks prices on a set of popular products, found that Amazon’s fifth-generation Echo Dot went from $50 to $80, and an Apple 4K streaming player climbed from $149 to $249. CR blames soaring prices for memory and storage chips.
Do the math on that Echo Dot. A splashy 37.5% off the new $80 price gets you right back to $50 — the price it used to sell for. That’s not a deal. That’s a refund of a price hike.
The Federal Trade Commission’s pricing guides say a “was” price should be the real price the item was openly offered at, on a regular basis, for a reasonably long stretch of time. A price pumped up just so it can be slashed is a fake bargain.
So before you buy anything over about $50, look up its price history. Consumer Reports’ tracker, for one, shows one-month, three-month and longer views for the products it follows.
The calendar matters. But the only number that really counts is what you paid compared with what you’d have paid last month. Know that, and you’ll know whether Black Friday — or Cyber Monday, or Thanksgiving — actually did you any favors.
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