The U.S. Department of Agriculture expects grocery prices to average 2.3% higher in 2026 than in 2025, and prices at restaurants and other food-away-from-home spots to average 3.5% higher, according to its October 2026 Food Price Outlook.
Those averages hide wide gaps between aisles.
How much the 2.3% hurts depends on what sits in the cart. Fresh vegetables are forecast up 5.8% and nonalcoholic beverages up 4.4%. Dairy is forecast down 0.4%.
Beef is the outlier
Retail beef and veal prices in September 2026 ran 3.5% above September 2025. The USDA expects beef production to stay below year-ago levels through the end of 2026, and it forecasts retail beef and veal prices up 8.7% for the year.
Pork is forecast up 1.0% and poultry up 1.2%. A cart that swaps even part of its beef for those may land closer to the 2.3% average than one built around steaks and roasts.
Eggs give some relief
Retail egg prices were 20.6% lower in September 2026 than a year earlier, and the USDA forecasts a 29.3% drop for the full year.
The department ties earlier spikes to an avian influenza outbreak that began in 2022. Egg prices rose 32.2% in 2022 and 21.9% in 2025. It projects higher production in 2026 as flocks recover, and it forecasts farm-level egg prices down 81.2%.
Eggs sit in plenty of holiday recipes, so the price drop helps the bakers in the house. Sugar and sweets are the catch, forecast to climb 6.5%. Coffee was 7.1% more expensive in September 2026 than a year earlier.
Where you shop still matters
Forecasts are national, and your store sets your price. Aldi and Lidl had the lowest prices in most states in a ranking of 2025 prices. Soda and snack costs have their own pressure, and a few shopping habits can keep both in check.
Eating out is on track to cost 3.5% more this year, so a discount there helps too.
AARP members can save up to 15% at participating restaurants, including national chains like Denny’s and Outback Steakhouse. You don’t have to be 50 to join, and membership costs $15 for the first year with automatic renewal.
Next year is a wider guess
The USDA projects food-at-home prices up 1.0% in 2027, but its range runs from a 5.2% decline to a 7.5% increase. Forecasts that wide are a rough direction, not a budget.
The department publishes updated outlooks regularly, so check the latest figures for the categories you buy most before locking in a holiday or 2027 spending plan.
Get rewarded for the shopping you already do
Groceries are a bill nobody can skip, so a rebate on what you already buy is a low-effort offset. With the Fetch app, you earn points on everyday purchases and redeem them for gift cards from retailers like Target, Amazon and Walmart.
Snap your receipts after you shop, or link a supported email account to earn on online orders. You can also earn by redeeming offers in the app and playing mobile games.
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