As the 2024 presidential election approaches, inflation remains a top concern for many voters. With past inflationary spikes fresh in their minds and the future unclear, the question remains: Who would be better at keeping prices in check, Trump or Harris?
Considering the rate at which inflation increased almost immediately as soon as Joe Biden’s administration took office — whether his fault or not — it’s one of Kamala Harris’ greatest weaknesses.
Although, knowing when and why inflation reached its most recent peak and how presidents since World War II have historically impacted inflation, it’s hard to say whether a Trump or Harris administration would be more capable.
The inflation blame game
President Trump signed large-scale stimulus bills that boosted household incomes, which increased consumer demand for goods and services. This post-pandemic spending environment, experts say, is why inflation surged when Biden took office in early 2021. Then Biden threw more fuel on the fire with another huge stimulus bill.
If you combine multiple experts’ views on how stimulus policies impacted inflation, you’ll find stimulus is often viewed as a larger contributor to inflation than supply chain issues (which spiked due to increased demand and the war in Ukraine) and “price gouging.”
Of course, those stimulus measures also kept a lot of Americans employed and helped millions more keep their heads above water during the pandemic.
Now that the nation is moving on from pandemic-related economic issues, and the post-pandemic inflation spike is beginning to fade into history, let’s get to the big election question: Which candidate will better keep prices in check?
Harris or Trump?
According to the Wall Street Journal’s survey of 50 economists, 68% say inflation would be higher if Trump won, 12% said the same thing about Harris and 20% didn’t think either would have much of an impact.
The Journal cited Trump’s proposed tariffs as the reason why economists chose Harris. He’s said he plans on enacting a 60% tariff on Chinese goods and a 10% minimum tariff on all foreign goods.
The University of Chicago Booth School of Business held a separate panel where they asked economists if they agree or disagree with the statement that U.S. tariffs result in a large portion of the tariffs being borne by American consumers through price increases. They practically all (94%) agreed.
Do they put their money where their mouth is?
Ultimately, inflation isn’t a standalone indicator of an economy’s health or lack thereof. But just like it was for Biden, inflation will be a key priority for the next president and the Federal Reserve.
Harris has been a champion for Bidenomics — a series of equity-focused spending initiatives — but it’s been the Federal Reserve that has led rising interest rate campaigns over the past few years. And according to economists like Michael Gapen, head of U.S. economics at Bank of America, it’s this mixed and consistent strategy that will keep inflation in check going forward.
It’s also important to note that both candidates have failed to address the ballooning federal budget deficit, which itself is inflationary.
Voters have the final say
Voters tend to remember rapid inflation rate increases if they happen close to an election. They tend not to do what you’re doing right now: seeking facts and thoughtfully considering which candidate will best represent their interests based on what they’re saying on the stump.
It’s also wise to remember that what a politician says while campaigning isn’t necessarily what that politician will do once elected, especially if they don’t have the cooperation of Congress. That’s who ultimately approves the policies and passes the laws that we all will have to deal with.
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