Areas where ICE arrests suddenly surged saw fewer people working, and not only among immigrants. A working paper from economists Elizabeth Cox and Chloe East of the University of Colorado Boulder also found a drop in employment among U.S.-born men with a high school education or less.
The researchers also tested the opposite idea: that U.S.-born workers would pick up jobs or higher pay as immigrant workers left.
In the four industries studied, they could rule out employment gains above 0.1 percentage points, and wage changes were not statistically significant.
What the paper measured
The team matched ICE arrest records from October 2023 through October 2025 against monthly Current Population Survey data through November 2025. Of the 58 areas in the analysis, those that saw a jump of roughly 50 arrests per 100,000 noncitizens in a single month counted as hit.
The authors compared employment in agriculture, construction, manufacturing and wholesale trade between hit areas and the rest.
Employment in those four industries fell 4.6 percentage points, or about 5%, among men who were likely undocumented. By the authors’ estimate, about six of those men stopped working for each additional arrest.
For every six who stopped, about one U.S.-born man with a high school education or less also lost work. Among men who are likely undocumented, the biggest drop was in construction.
What it cannot show
The survey does not record immigration status, so the authors define likely undocumented workers as foreign-born adults ages 20 to 64 with a high school degree or less. Their estimates capture immigrants who remained in the country but stopped working, likely out of fear of encountering ICE, not the removals themselves.
The paper has not been peer-reviewed, and most estimates for single industries were statistically insignificant because the samples are small.
It also measures jobs, not prices. Builders say they are seeing the strain. In an October 2026 report, the National Association of Home Builders’ chief economist blamed labor shortages, made worse by immigration enforcement and competition from data center construction, for longer project times.
Protecting a home project
Television host Mike Rowe has long argued the skilled trades are thinning, saying only 2 of every 5 departing tradespeople are replaced. The median cost of a home improvement project has already jumped 76% in a decade, even after inflation.
None of that proves your contractor will be late or expensive.
The Federal Trade Commission advises getting a written estimate that lists the work, materials, completion date and price, and not automatically choosing the lowest bidder. It also says, “Don’t pay the full amount for the project up front,” and to consider only licensed and insured contractors.
The agency adds that the contract should carry the contractor’s license number and estimated start and completion dates. With crews harder to book, those two dates are the ones to press on before you sign.
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