JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon had good news about the U.S. economy in the bank’s third-quarter earnings release on Oct. 13, saying it “continued to be fueled by strong business investment and ongoing consumer spending.”
The next sentence was a warning. He said that “large fiscal deficits, sticky inflation, elevated asset prices, rising interest rates and geopolitical conditions continue to shift under the surface.”
“These forces may be manageable, but we remain prepared for a wide range of outcomes,” he added.
Several of those forces are already in the federal data. Consumer prices rose 3.7% in the 12 months through September 2026, with energy up 20.4%. On Sept. 16, the Federal Reserve raised its benchmark rate to between 3.75% and 4%, saying, “Inflation remains elevated.”
Dimon’s bank is not betting on a single forecast. You can build a retirement plan the same way, so it isn’t riding on any one outcome from his list.
1. Check how far your stocks have drifted
Higher asset prices matter for anyone with a 401(k) or IRA. When stocks outrun bonds for a stretch, a portfolio that started at 60% stocks can grow into something far riskier without a single trade.
The Securities and Exchange Commission’s guide to asset allocation describes two ways to rebalance: on a set schedule, “such as every six or twelve months,” or whenever an asset class moves more than a percentage you choose in advance.
It also notes that rebalancing “tends to work best when done on a relatively infrequent basis.” Trades inside an IRA or 401(k) generally do not trigger taxes, while selling winners in a taxable account can.
For anyone within a few years of leaving work, this check belongs near the top of the money moves to make before you retire.
2. Know what rising rates do to your bonds
Bonds are meant to be the steadier part of a retirement portfolio, but their prices move opposite interest rates. In an SEC example, a Treasury bond paying 3% with nine years left falls from $1,000 to $925 when market rates climb to 4%.
Longer maturities carry more of that risk. Shorter-term bonds, certificates of deposit (CDs) and Treasury bills held to maturity give up some potential gain if rates fall, but they lose less if rates keep rising. A bond held to maturity still repays its face value, as long as the issuer does not default.
3. Consider a slice of gold for the inflation case
Many investors hold gold for one scenario in particular: inflation that stays sticky for years. It comes with its own risks. Gold pays no interest or dividends, and its price can swing sharply in both directions.
Federal tax rules allow it inside a retirement account. The IRS treats most collectibles as off-limits for IRAs but makes an exception for certain gold, silver, platinum and palladium bullion that meets fineness standards and is held by a bank or approved trustee, along with certain coins.
If you want physical metal in a tax-advantaged account, Anthem Gold Group offers Gold and Silver IRAs. You can request a free guide with no obligation, or call 888-718-3963 and a specialist can walk you through your options.
4. Keep a cash cushion for a bad market
A falling market hurts most when a retiree has to sell stocks to pay the bills. Keeping a year or two of planned withdrawals in savings, CDs, or short-term Treasuries lets you leave your stocks alone while prices are down.
With the Fed’s benchmark rate at 3.75% to 4%, that cash does not have to sit idle. The Money Talks News savings page can help you compare places to keep your savings, including high-yield accounts and CDs.
5. Get a second set of eyes on the plan
A financial advisor can test a plan against several of the forces Dimon flagged at once: how your income holds up if inflation runs hot for years, what a market drop does to your withdrawals and how higher rates change the value of your bonds.
If you have $100,000 or more in investable assets, Advisor.com can help you find a financial advisor to run those numbers with you.
Before you hire anyone, ask whether they are a fiduciary legally bound to put your interests first, how they are paid and what you will pay in total, in dollars, each year. Ask those questions before you hand over any money.
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