Every weekend, I recap “news you can use” from the week — a handful of quotes from major (and often expensive) financial news sources — so you can stay up to date on the news that affects your money without spending a dime and in less than a minute.

Here’s an overview of what happened this week.

US Consumer Sentiment Falls on Worries About Prices, Economy (Sept. 25, Bloomberg):

US consumer sentiment fell in September to a four-month low amid deepening worries about rising prices and the outlook for the economy.

The University of Michigan’s final sentiment index decreased to 48.1 in September from a month earlier, according to the survey released Friday.

Why High Bond Yields Look Like the New Normal (Sept. 25, Bloomberg):

The US has traditionally enjoyed a “convenience yield,” whereby investors were willing to pay higher prices — and accept lower payouts — because of the liquidity, safety and usefulness of Treasuries as collateral. Some say that privilege has been eroded, pointing to the ever-increasing national debt load and Trump’s erratic policymaking. Others argue that the concern is exaggerated and Treasuries remain the safest debt out there.

The Robust U.S. Economy Powers Through Rate Hikes and Rising Bond Yields (Sept. 25, Wall Street Journal):

The usual economic brakes aren’t slowing growth, hiring or an AI investment boom that looks to be unstoppable. To some, AI’s potential returns seem so bright that even steep interest rates won’t slow down tech companies’ investments.

Trump and Xi Buy Time on Trade With Neither Able to Afford a Fight (Sept. 24, Bloomberg):

Donald Trump and Xi Jinping agreed to maintain a trade truce until early 2027, with neither ready to upend relations between the world’s biggest economies.

“We can live with that because we are confident that within two months the US cannot become independent of Chinese rare-earth supply,” said Wu Xinbo, director of Fudan University’s Center for American Studies and a former adviser to China’s Foreign Ministry. “They’ll come back and beg for Chinese exports of rare earth magnets to the US.”

30-year Treasury yield hits highest level since 2004 as bond market rout continues (Sept. 24, CNBC):

The benchmark 10-year Treasury note yield, which is tied to rates on mortgages, surged to 5.139% — its highest level since July 2007. The yield on the 2-year note
climbed to 4.897% for its highest since 2023, while the 30-year Treasury yield was up more than 3 basis points to reach a post-2004 peak of 5.438%.

10-year Treasury yield rockets to 19-year high. Here’s what’s driving the spike (Sept. 23, CNBC):

The benchmark 10-year Treasury note yield popped more than 13 basis points to 5.104%, a level not seen since July 2007.

The S&P Global services PMI jumped to 58.7 in September, its highest level in nearly five years, from 56.5 in August. Its manufacturing counterpart also raced to 56.7, a level not seen in more than four years.

Odds of another quarter-point rate increase in October rose Wednesday to 73% from 55% on Tuesday, per the CME Group’s FedWatch tool. Those chances stood at less than 10% a month ago.

Oil could top $150 a barrel if supplies tighten further, Bank of America warns (Sept. 22, MarketWatch):

Oil prices could reach upward of $150 a barrel if inventories continue to deplete as the war in Iran rages on, according to Bank of America, and the bank has raised its year-end forecast for Brent crude from $83 a barrel to a new target of $95 a barrel.

“Although alternative routes and escorted Hormuz shipments have mitigated some of the shortfall, damaged infrastructure and rising geopolitical tensions make rapid normalization unlikely,” strategists led by Francisco Blanch, head of global commodities, equity derivatives and cross-asset quantitative investment strategies, wrote in a note released to the media on Tuesday.

Oil prices fall for fifth day after Trump says U.S. met with Iran for three hours (Sept. 22, CNBC):

Trump told the UN General Assembly in New York City that he has a “big decision” to make on whether to seek negotiated deal with Iran or “annihilate the Islamic Republic.”

“I believe we’ll make a deal right after the election because it doesn’t make sense for them not to,” Trump said. “They’re waiting to see how I do in the midterm election. What they don’t realize is that I’m not running.”

Bitcoin hits highest level since January at $86,000, as the market debates whether the ‘crypto winter’ is over (Sept. 21, CNBC):

Bitcoin was trading at $84,256 at around 06:35 a.m. ET, up around 3.8%, according to CoinMetrics. Earlier in the day, the cryptocurrency rose as high as $85,229, its highest level since late January.

While bitcoin is still down this year, it has risen more than 7% in the last 5 days and nearly 35% over the last 3 months. It is still well off its record high.

See Also:

Still Paying a 1% Fee to Your Financial Adviser? 4 Ways to Save Thousands

Every weekend, I recap “news you can use” from the week — a handful of quotes from major (and often expensive) financial news sources — so you can stay up to date on the news that affects your money without spending a dime and in less than a minute.

Here’s an overview of what happened this week.

Oil crude oil rises as market assesses disruption from Saudi pipeline closure (Sept. 17, CNBC):

Oil prices fell on Friday as investors weighed fresh strikes between Saudi Arabia and Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthis against signs that additional Saudi crude could reach global markets and help ease supply concerns.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures fell 1.9% to $100.05, having briefly dipped below $100.

Weeks Before the Midterms, Almost Everything Is Getting More Expensive (Sept. 17, Wall Street Journal):

Consumer prices were up 3.4% from a year earlier in August, extending five years of price pressures on Americans. For five months, wage gains haven’t kept pace with inflation and, especially with the sharp increase in gasoline prices over the past few weeks, they aren’t likely to keep up this month, either.

That could be consequential in congressional races across the country, especially in places where Democrats have made affordability central to their messaging.

Oil prices fall as Saudi Arabia reportedly offers more crude via Hormuz after pipeline attack (Sept. 16, CNBC):

Brent futures, the international benchmark, was 3.6% lower at $102 per barrel, while U.S. crude oil was down 2.8% at $99.53 a barrel.

Saudi Arabia is making additional crude cargoes available to Asian refiners through ship-to-ship transfers near Oman’s Sohar port, helping cushion the impact on global supplies from attacks on the kingdom’s East-West pipeline to the Red Sea, Reuters reported, citing sources familiar with the matter.

Retail sales surged toward the end of summer. The U.S. economy still has plenty of momentum. (Sept. 16, MarketWatch):

Sales at retailers shot up 1.2% last month, the government said Wednesday, well above the Wall Street forecast.

The trend in retail sales in the past year is quite robust even with high inflation. Receipts have risen 6%, well above the long-term average, though sales were more modest after taking inflation into account.

Fed Raises Rates to Curb Inflation, Drawing Rebuke From Trump (Sept. 16, Bloomberg):

The Federal Open Market Committee voted unanimously to increase the benchmark federal funds rate to a range of 3.75% to 4% on Wednesday. It was the US central bank’s first rate increase since July 2023.

Speaking to reporters later on Wednesday, Trump said he spoke with Warsh and that he still has confidence in the chairman. “You might as well vote with the board because it’s not going to matter,” Trump said. “The board is very hostile, very political.”

10-year Treasury yield hits highest level since 2007 as traders bet a Fed rate hike is coming (Sept. 15, CNBC):

The rate milestone could ripple through the economy as the 10-year yield is a benchmark for consumers loans and corporate funding.

Traders are pricing in a more than 92% chance that the Fed will raise rates by 25 basis points in its latest meeting, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

Iran war has cost on average $246 million per day in its first five months, CBO finds (Sept. 15, CNBC):

The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office estimates the Iran war has cost the Pentagon $38.1 billion through Aug. 1 and could cost another $2 billion to $3 billion monthly.

The U.S. has used as much as two-thirds of its missile defense interceptors since June 2025; replenishing them could take at least five years. The war is projected to keep weighing on inflation, adding 0.5 percentage points to inflation metrics by early 2027 as energy costs spread through the economy, the CBO said.

Senate Votes to Block Crypto Bill in Major Blow to the Industry (Sept. 15, New York Times):

The vote on Tuesday was a stinging defeat for the industry that makes it unlikely the legislation will pass anytime soon — if ever.

While many Republicans embraced the bill, Democrats largely opposed it. Many of their concerns centered on President Trump, who generated $1.4 billion from a network of crypto businesses last year.

Micron, Nvidia and other chip stocks fall after tech leaders call for an AI slowdown. Here’s what to know. (Sept. 14, MarketWatch):

Whether the sharp moves lower are justified is a matter of debate on Wall Street.

“This is not a halt: the benefits for growth, healthcare and democracy still outweigh the tail risks; AI adoption and token trends remain intact; excessive slowing risks ceding leadership in AI; and the administration remains pro-AI,” wrote Federico Manicardi and Victoria Campos of J.P. Morgan’s international trading desk.

US 10-Year Yield Breaches 5% as Inflation, Supply Worries Mount (Sept. 14, Bloomberg):

The yield rose as much as 4 basis points to 5.01% on Monday. It last breached the 5% level in October 2023, and only for one day.

The rise in the 10-year yield, a benchmark borrowing cost for global government and corporate debt as well as US mortgages, threatens to slow economic growth and weigh on equities that are trading at lofty valuations.

Trump goes scorched earth on AI warnings, raging about data center opposition and regulation (Sept. 14, CNBC):

“The only control or ‘guardrails’ that AI needs is a STRONG AND SMART (High IQ!) PRESIDENT, and the U.S.A. has that, in spades!” Trump wrote in a Truth Social post.

“The Trump Administration has stopped AI ‘people’ from doing bad, or potentially bad, ‘things,’ like Dario (Anthropic!), who is now pretending to be a ‘perfect little angel’ – and we will continue to do so!” Trump wrote.

See Also:

Still Paying a 1% Fee to Your Financial Adviser? 4 Ways to Save Thousands

Every weekend, I recap “news you can use” from the week — a handful of quotes from major (and often expensive) financial news sources — so you can stay up to date on the news that affects your money without spending a dime and in less than a minute.

Here’s an overview of what happened this week.

Firm Inflation Reading Pushes Fed Closer to a Rate Increase (Sept. 11, Wall Street Journal):

The biggest worry is that current, elevated inflation levels could work their way into people’s inflation expectations—which can in turn affect future inflation. If workers believe inflation will remain high, for example, they can push for wage increases beyond the price increases they have already seen. Similarly, businesses will raise prices in an effort to offset the higher costs they expect to pay.

Treasury yields remain near multi-year highs as August CPI shows sticky inflation (Sept. 11, CNBC):

U.S. Treasury yields were mostly higher Friday, remaining at or near multiyear highs, as bond markets assessed the the latest consumer price report for August.

10-year U.S. Treasury note yield —the benchmark for mortgages, auto loans and credit card debt — was ahead almost 3 basis points, to 4.97%. The longer-dated 30-year Treasury bond yield, more sensitive to geopolitical risks, was little changed at about 5.359%.

Trump promises $5,000 checks if Republicans win the midterms. He also teased tariff and ‘DOGE’ dividends last year that never came. (Sept. 10, MarketWatch):

During his speech in Dallas, Trump didn’t mention that in November he floated the idea of payments of at least $2,000 to most Americans to show the benefits of his tariff policy. Those checks never materialized.

One hurdle for new payouts of $5,000 would be the huge cost. Assuming there are roughly 240 million adult U.S. citizens, the price tag would be $1.2 trillion.

Wholesale prices rose 0.4% in August, as expected (Sept. 10, CNBC):

On an annual basis, that put PPI at 5.4%, still well above the Fed’s 2% inflation target and 0.1 percentage point higher than expected.

Excluding food and energy, core PPI accelerated by 0.2%, against the forecast for a 0.3% increase. Core less trade services, another volatile category, was up 0.3%.

ECB raises interest rates to fight off inflation jump (Sept. 10, Reuters):

Surging oil and natural gas ‌prices pushed inflation well past 3% across the 21-country euro zone last month, far exceeding the ECB’s 2% target, and a ​recent escalation of the conflict points to further price pressures that could eventually seep into wage-setting.

U.S. crude oil tops $100 again – last seen in May – as market braces for prolonged Iran war (Sept. 9, CNBC):

West Texas Intermediate futures gained 6.7% to close at $102.48 per barrel, the highest settle since May 19. Brent crude, the international benchmark, advanced 6.3% to settle at $107.63 per barrel.

Top White House advisors have discussed with President Donald Trump the possibility that the Iran war could drag on past Inauguration Day in January 2029, U.S. officials told The Wall Street Journal.

Anthropic Researcher Quits Over ‘Out-of-Control’ AI Fears (Sept. 9, Wall Street Journal):

“We’re on track for a lot of the most aggressive of these scenarios where by the end of next year things could be out of control already,” Coxon said, adding that safety trade-offs are inevitable when companies are competing against one another and Chinese upstarts.

See Also:

Still Paying a 1% Fee to Your Financial Adviser? 4 Ways to Save Thousands

Why Stocks Are Defying Gravity and What Could Bring Them Down (Sept. 8, New York Times):

What’s propping up investor optimism right now is a strong earnings season and enthusiasm around artificial intelligence, helping to overcome fears of inflation and the impact of rising interest rates.

But those gains may waver as markets wade through September, a month when, historically, stocks fall. There are also risks to the rally as interest rates keep rising and concerns about runaway spending on A.I. data centers mount.

Goldman Flags Risk of $120 Oil If Mideast Ship Attacks Intensify (Sept. 6, CNBC):

In addition to Goldman’s so-called upside scenario of $120 a barrel, the bank also has a lower target of $80 should exports from the region normalize, Struyven said. Brent last traded near $97.

The standoff after more than six months of war has boosted a wide array of energy prices, with gains in natural gas and petroleum products outpacing crude oil. Industrial fuel diesel has more than doubled this year.

Every weekend, I recap “news you can use” from the week — a handful of quotes from major (and often expensive) financial news sources — so you can stay up to date on the news that affects your money without spending a dime and in less than a minute.

Here’s an overview of what happened this week.

Global bond sell-off likely not over yet, Mohamed El-Erian tells CNBC (Sept. 4, CNBC):

Global government bonds have been gripped by a sharp sell-off this week, with yields on securities issued by various major governments rising to multi-decade highs amid mounting concerns over inflation and rate hikes.

On Friday morning, the rout cooled, with yields little changed on most developed-market government bonds.

U.S. payrolls rose 162,000 in August, much more than expected; unemployment rate at 4.1% (Sept. 4, CNBC):

Nonfarm payrolls rose a seasonally adjusted 162,000 for the month while the unemployment rate, as expected, held steady at 4.1%, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for a payrolls increase of 53,000.

August’s total was the strongest monthly gain since March.

US Trade Gap Widens to Largest Since Early 2025 on AI Push (Sept. 3, Bloomberg):

The US trade deficit widened sharply in July to the largest since early 2025, reflecting a surge in imports of computers and other technology equipment.

The gap in goods and services trade grew 24.4% from the prior month to $88.6 billion, Commerce Department data showed Thursday. The value of imports increased 2.8% and exports fell 2.1%.

US labor market remains stable; services input price rises point to elevated inflation (Sept. 3, Yahoo):

Initial claims for state ‌unemployment benefits climbed 2,000 to a seasonally adjusted 206,000 for the week ended August 29, the Labor ‌Department said. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 205,000 claims for the latest week.

Private payrolls rose by 38,000 in August, less than expected, ADP reports (Sept. 2, CNBC):

Private companies added 38,000 jobs in August, down from 46,000 and below the estimate for 47,000, for the slowest month since January, according to ADP.

Three categories accounted for most of the job growth: education and health services, leisure and hospitality and construction. Manufacturing saw a loss of 17,000 jobs.

Bond Sell-Off Threatens to Squeeze Borrowers Around the World (Sept. 1, New York Times):

As rising oil prices compound worries about inflation, bond yields are testing fresh highs, squeezing government budgets and raising interest rates on a wide range of consumer and business loans. The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury notes, perhaps the world’s most influential interest rate, reached its highest since January 2025, and the 30-year yield continued to hover around a two-decade high.

Global oil prices surge to a 6-week hight after the U.S. strikes Iran in Hormuz (Sept. 1, MarketWatch):

West Texas Intermediate’s contract for October delivery advanced 2.5% to $87.95 a barrel, while Brent crude’s November contract climbed more than 2% to $92.38 a barrel. It brings both the U.S. and the international benchmark up to their highest levels in almost two weeks, according to Dow Jones Market Data.

This follows the news that two oil supertankers were hit by projectiles in the Strait of Hormuz, according to a Bloomberg report based on information from maritime risk management consultant Marisks.

See Also:

Still Paying a 1% Fee to Your Financial Adviser? 4 Ways to Save Thousands

U.S. Job Openings Rose in July as Hiring Ticked Down (Sept. 1, Wall Street Journal):

“The ratio of openings to the number of unemployed is still above 1, another indication that the labor market is roughly in balance,” wrote Nancy Vanden Houten, lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics.

Global oil prices settle above $90 a barrel after U.S. and Iran exchange fire for the first time in a month (Aug. 31, MarketWatch):

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Monday that Iran is responding with military aggression because U.S. sanctions are inflicting economic pain on the regime. “I would think that they are lashing out kinetically because they are losing economically,” he told reporters at a meeting of G-20 finance ministers and central-bank governors in North Carolina.