Adults in a new Harris Poll survey for Nationwide expected health care to cost a median of $4,500 over their retirement, among those willing to estimate. However, 71% of the 1,933 adults surveyed from July 20 to Aug. 4, 2026, said they could not estimate the total.
Fidelity’s yearly estimate for a single 65-year-old retiring in 2026 is $185,500, up 7.5% from a year earlier. The median guess covers about 2.4% of it. Even the survey’s average guess, $24,007, falls short by more than $160,000.
Medicare premiums alone pass the typical guess
Medicare is not free. The standard Part B premium is $202.90 a month in 2026, or $2,434.80 for the year, plus a $283 annual deductible. Two years of Part B premiums would top the median survey answer for all of retirement.
Fidelity’s figure assumes Original Medicare and a Part D drug plan. Premiums for Parts B and D account for 45% of it; copays, coinsurance, and deductibles for 48%; and out-of-pocket prescription costs for the remaining 7%.
Income can raise the bill further. Only 30% of Nationwide’s respondents knew that the statement “Retirement income does not affect Medicare Part B and D premiums” is false. Retirees above certain income levels pay surcharges on top of the standard premium.
The largest risk sits outside the estimate
Fidelity’s figure leaves out long-term care, along with over-the-counter medicine and most dental work. Medicare does not cover long-term or custodial care unless medical care is also needed.
Only 31% of survey respondents correctly marked “Medicare covers Long-Term Care” as false.
Separately, 22% named long-term care affordability among their biggest financial stressors in planning for retirement health care, and the need is common: About 7 in 10 people turning 65 will need some form of long-term care.
Long-term care insurance can help fill that gap, covering services like home care, assisted living and help with daily tasks. Rates are typically lowest if you buy in your 50s or early 60s, couples often qualify for discounts, and premiums may even be tax-deductible. See a list of the best LTC insurance companies; it takes two minutes.
Building a number you can use
Start with the costs you can look up. Medicare open enrollment runs Oct. 15 to Dec. 7, and free comparison tools and counseling can show what premiums and drug costs would look like under each 2027 option.
Prescriptions are the piece easiest to trim on your own. The Money Talks News prescription savings page compares prices for the same drug, strength and quantity across pharmacies.
For people still working and eligible, Fidelity points to health savings accounts, which you can invest and use tax-free for qualified medical costs. Timing matters: only 19% of survey respondents knew contributions must stop before Medicare enrollment.
Few people get professional help putting the pieces together. Only 16% of adults in the survey had talked to a financial professional because of concerns about future health care costs.
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