For the last few years, homebuyers have faced a brutal equation: High prices plus high interest rates equaled monthly payments they could not afford. But the math is finally shifting.
According to a recent analysis from Zillow, the U.S. housing market is on track for its most affordable year since 2022. By the end of 2026, 20 of the country’s 50 largest metropolitan areas are expected to be affordable.
As of December 2025, the typical U.S. mortgage payment consumed 32.6% of the median household income. While that is down from a peak of 38.2% in late 2023, it is still above the 30% threshold that financial experts consider healthy.
For its analysis, Zillow considered a market affordable if the monthly mortgage payment on the typical home — including principal, interest, property taxes and insurance — accounts for no more than 30% of the area’s median household income.
This calculation assumes the buyer puts 20% down.
The return to affordability is the result of three economic factors, Zillow says:
- Mortgage rates have come down: Rates are expected to hover near 6% through the year.
- Incomes are rising: Wages are projected to grow by 3.3%.
- Price growth is stalling: Home values are forecast to rise a modest 1.9%, far below the skyrocketing appreciation seen during and following the COVID-19 pandemic. In fact, home values dropped month-over-month in 48 of the 50 largest metros leading into this year. This cooling effect allows wages to finally catch up to home prices.
The national affordability rate is on pace to remain just outside the affordable range — 31.8% — by year-end. But certain regional markets, particularly the Midwest and South, are cooling down much faster.
At the other end of the spectrum is Hartford, Connecticut. It’s the only one of the 50 largest metros where affordability is expected to worsen, with the rate going from 33.5% in December 2025 to 33.6% in December 2026.
Following are the 20 major metros where Zillow projects homes will be affordable by December 2026.
They are listed with their expected affordability in December 2026, their affordability as of December 2025 and their Zillow Home Value Index, respectively. This index is defined as the average of the middle third of home values in a given metro area.
- Pittsburgh, PA — 21.4%, 22.3%, $218,845
- Birmingham, AL — 23.3%, 24.2%, $251,913
- St. Louis, MO — 25.2%, 25.9%, $263,846
- Detroit, MI — 25.5%, 26.1%, $256,357
- Buffalo, NY — 26.3%, 26.6%, $272,868
- Oklahoma City, OK — 26.3%, 26.9%, $239,880
- Louisville, KY — 26.4%, 27.2%, $270,246
- Indianapolis, IN — 26.6%, 27.0%, $284,684
- Memphis, TN — 26.9%, 27.7%, $239,011
- San Antonio, TX — 27.7%, 28.9%, $274,336
- Cleveland, OH — 27.7%, 28.1%, $238,517
- Cincinnati, OH — 28.1%, 28.6%, $297,209
- Baltimore, MD — 28.2%, 29.3%, $391,913
- Minneapolis, MN — 28.7%, 30.0%, $377,251
- Houston, TX — 28.8%, 29.8%, $303,084
- Kansas City, MO — 28.9%, 29.4%, $312,751
- Columbus, OH — 29.5%, 30.0%, $319,035
- Raleigh, NC — 29.6%, 30.4%, $429,840
- Chicago, IL — 29.7%, 30.4%, $336,642
- Atlanta, GA — 29.9%, 30.6%, $374,477
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