Of all the areas in Florida, Monroe County has the highest hurricane potential for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, according to data provided by Colorado State University.
The university’s 43rd annual seasonal hurricane forecast, released April 9, predicts a slightly below-normal season, with 13 named storms and six hurricanes. Two of the hurricanes are forecast to become Category 3 storms of 111 mph or higher.
There is a 39% probability that a named storm will impact Monroe County, according to the forecast, with a 22% chance of a hurricane and a 12% chance for a hurricane of Category 3 strength or higher.
“We’re basically like a little thumb sticking out into the ocean,” Stephanie Hartman, communications director at the Florida Division of Emergency Management, said during the recent National Hurricane Conference in Orlando. “That means we have no room for complacency.”
An average hurricane season usually sees 14 tropical storms, seven of which become hurricanes.
Though Monroe County tops the list, Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach are also among the top 10 Florida counties with the highest probabilities of seeing a named storm, hurricane or major hurricane come within 50 miles during the 2026 season.
When Is the 2026 Hurricane Season in Florida?
The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season runs June 1 to Nov. 30, with August, September and October being the most active months, particularly in Florida. In several years past, however, hurricane season has started early, with tropical systems named as early as April or May.
Which Florida Counties Are at Greatest Risk in 2026?
Below are the top 10 Florida counties with the highest hurricane potential in 2026. The listed percentages refer to the probability that each county will see a named storm, hurricane or major hurricane come within 50 miles, respectively.
- Monroe County: 39% named storm, 22% hurricane, 12% major hurricane
- Brevard: 32%, 12%, 4%
- Miami-Dade: 32%, 16%, 10%
- Broward: 31%, 16%, 7%
- Collier: 31%, 15%, 9%
- Palm Beach: 31%, 15%, 6%
- Lee: 29%, 13%, 8%
- Charlotte: 28%, 12%, 7%
- Duval: 28%, 10%, 2%
- Escambia: 28%, 12%, 5%
What Are Florida’s Overall Odds for 2026?
According to Colorado State University, there is a 74% probability that a named storm will pass within 50 miles of Florida’s coast and a 21% chance that a major hurricane could do the same during the 2026 hurricane season. The climatological average is 86% for a named storm and 29% for a major hurricane.
Sarah Perkel is a South Florida Connect Reporter for the USA TODAY Network’s Florida Connect team.
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