Spirit Airlines left a parting gift for its competitors.
When the low-cost airline ended its operations on May 2, it created an opening for other carriers to grow.
JetBlue and other airlines are already making moves to lure passengers in markets where Spirit had a big presence, and as the bankruptcy proceedings get underway, more than 170 aircraft will be up for grabs in one way or another.
Experts say it will take some time for the aviation market to reach a new equilibrium, but passengers should expect some capacity growth at some carriers, and higher airfares in most markets that Spirit used to serve.
Here’s what analysts say will likely happen next.
Airfares Will Rise
The most significant impact for travelers is that airfares are likely to go up across the board, but especially in markets where Spirit competed with other airlines. Airlines are struggling with higher fuel costs, and the exit of a low-cost competitor means other companies don’t have to compete on price as strenuously.
“That will make it a lot easier for carriers that remain to raise prices to cover the higher costs they’re experiencing. It’ll accelerate the rate at which they can raise prices,” Robert W. Mann Jr., a former airline executive and current president of R.W. Mann and Co., an independent airline consultancy, told USA TODAY.
Mann warned, however, that as airlines raise prices, they may also cut off some demand, especially as more cost-sensitive travelers get priced out of the market.
Ahmed Abdelghany, associate dean for research and professor of operations management at Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University, told USA TODAY that travelers will need to be ready to pay more without Spirit in the airline ecosystem.
“This low price was helping the consumer and forcing other airlines in many markets to match that low fare in some of their booking classes,” he said. “You are not losing capacity permanently for sure, but what you are losing permanently is the lowest price point in the market.”
Planes Will Join Other Fleets
Spirit’s all-Airbus fleet is up for grabs — sort of.
As aircraft manufacturers face delays in delivering new planes to customers, there will likely be a scramble for Spirit’s fleet. But Mann warned the redeployment of Spirit’s planes won’t happen overnight, and likely won’t help add capacity during the peak summer travel season.
“The whole thing is handled under the bankruptcy process, so the idea that things are going to happen Monday morning or next Monday morning or even in June, is optimistic,” Mann said, adding that it can take a month or more just for planes to be inspected, repaired, and retrofitted when a new company brings them onboard.
“The idea that many of them would go back to work for the summer is quite limited. They would only be available after the summer, and by that point, you don’t need them.”
According to data from Cirium, an aviation analytics company, Spirit had 172 planes in its fleet when it shut down on May 2. Of those, 95 were in active service and 77 were in storage, largely in Arizona. A majority of Spirit’s planes — 124 — were leased, which means they’ll automatically be returned to the lessor.
Some of the 48 owned planes were also signed over to a lessor previously, meaning the bankruptcy proceedings will only result in a direct sale of a few of the aircraft in Spirit’s fleet.
Still, Abdelghany said, airlines around the world will be happy to take them on.
“Since they are mostly in the Airbus 320 family, the lessors won’t have a problem relocating those to other airlines,” he said. “It’s an attractive option for many airlines.”
According to Cirium, Frontier Airlines, another all-Airbus American ultra-low-cost carrier, is one of the likeliest companies to benefit directly from Spirit’s aircraft becoming available. But other airlines globally, including in the Asia-Pacific and Latin American regions, could wind up with some of the airframes as well.
Airlines Will Try to Capture Demand
Closer to home, U.S. airlines are likely to work overtime to fill the gaps left by Spirit Airlines, particularly in profitable, popular Florida markets.
JetBlue, one of Spirit’s biggest competitors in the Sunshine State, has already announced aggressive moves to expand there, including 11 new routes from Fort Lauderdale — a former Spirit hub — on May 4.
Abdelghany said the move wasn’t surprising, as JetBlue and other airlines had been telegraphing their intentions as Spirit contracted during successive bankruptcies over the last few years.
“It’s happened before: The shutdown of Spirit Airlines didn’t happen overnight. It was cutting routes and cutting destinations over the last few months,” he said. “This is going to be mostly absorbed in the markets. Another airline will come and fill those routes or expand in those markets.”
Mann said JetBlue is probably the best-positioned airline to benefit from Spirit’s shutdown, given its solid foothold in Florida. Spirit’s exit also makes JetBlue — which has had financial struggles of its own — a more attractive takeover target, and Reuters reported the Trump administration signaled in April that it would favor more consolidation in the airline market.
Spirit’s Employees May Get Rehired
An airline winding down its business often leaves thousands of workers without jobs, but in the tight aviation market, many of those professionals — especially pilots and flight attendants — are likely to land at other carriers as competitors expand in markets Spirit once served.
“There’s going to be some displacement of some of the labor but hopefully the other airlines will absorb the majority of that workforce into them,” Abdelghany said.
Zach Wichter is a travel reporter and writes the Cruising Altitude column for USA TODAY.
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