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President Donald Trump has a new grocery-store talking point, and your receipt may not agree with it.
“The prices for groceries have come way down from Biden. Almost every price has come way down,” Trump told reporters on Sunday, Sept. 27. Later that day he added, “With the exception of oil, everything is going down.” (1)
I’ve been a CPA since 1981, and have been writing about money for 35+ years. I’ve spent my career checking claims against the numbers. So let’s check this one.
A CNN analysis of federal price data found grocery prices are up 3.4% on average since January 2025. (1) The Bureau of Labor Statistics says food-at-home prices rose 2.2% in the 12 months ending in August. (2)
The U.S. Department of Agriculture expects grocery prices to finish 2026 up 2.4%. (3) And PolitiFact rated a nearly identical Trump claim from Sept. 4 “Mostly False.” (4)
That matters most to retirees, because the 2027 Social Security raise is coming Oct. 14, and the latest estimate puts it at 3.5%. (5)
Here are six numbers from the grocery aisle, and what they mean for your budget.
1. Eggs: the one big win
Credit where it’s due. Egg prices are down 31.1% since January 2025, according to CNN’s review of the data. (1) The USDA expects egg prices to finish 2026 down about 29%. (3)
If you remember paying record prices for a dozen eggs, that relief is real. It’s also the main exception, not the rule.
2. Coffee: up 21.8%
Coffee is up 21.8% since January 2025. (1) Nonalcoholic beverages overall are up 6.3%. (1)
For a lot of retirees, the morning pot of coffee is the last luxury they’ll give up. It’s now one of the fastest-rising things in the cart.
3. Beef: up 16.5%
The beef and veal category is up 16.5% since January 2025. (1) The USDA expects beef prices to rise 9.4% this year alone. (3)
Fruits and vegetables are up 4.6%, and cereals and bakery products are up 3.3%. (1) Dairy is about the only aisle that’s essentially flat. (1)
4. Slower isn’t the same as lower
Here’s where the president has a sliver of a point. Grocery inflation is running below overall inflation, which was 3.4% in August. (2)
But prices rising more slowly is not prices “coming way down.” A grocery bill that grows 2% a year is still bigger every year, and it never goes back to where it was.
When food is squeezing you, the fastest relief is usually somewhere else in the budget.
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Quick gut-check — if your money advice is coming from random online influencers, you’re playing a dangerous game. I’ve been a CPA since 1981 and writing about money since before the internet existed. Sign up for the free Money Talks Newsletter and get expert advice that’s been tested by time.
5. Your 3.5% raise isn’t built for your grocery cart
The Senior Citizens League estimates the 2027 cost-of-living adjustment at 3.5%. (5) On a $2,000 monthly check, that’s about $70 more a month, before any increase in your Medicare premium comes out of it.
And here’s the catch most people miss. The COLA is tied to the CPI-W, an index built around the spending of working households. (5) Many retirees spend a bigger share of their budgets on housing and health care than workers do.
If you’re not sure your income will keep up with prices for the next 20 or 30 years, that’s a planning problem worth a professional look. SmartAsset matches you, free, with up to three fiduciary advisors who are legally required to put your interests first. Have $100K+ in investments? Get matched free in minutes.
6. Gas: the exception he admitted
Trump carved out oil, and for good reason. PolitiFact found gasoline prices up 41% since the start of his second term, and electricity up more than 8%. (4) Overall consumer prices are up about 4.7% over that stretch. (4)
You can’t control the price on the sign, but you can stop paying full price at the pump.
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What I’d do at the store this week
Shop by unit price, not package price. Shrinking packages are the oldest trick in the aisle.
Buy store brands. In my experience, the quality gap is small and the price gap isn’t.
Lean on the cheap stuff while it’s cheap. Eggs are a bargain protein again. (1)
And grab every discount you’re already entitled to. Members of AARP save on things like dining, eyeglasses, prescriptions and meal delivery, and membership is as low as $15 for your first year with auto-renewal. Check it out here.
The bottom line
Politicians of both parties love to take credit when prices behave and blame someone else when they don’t. Your grocery receipt doesn’t care who’s in office.
The honest scorecard: eggs are way down, coffee and beef are way up, and the overall bill is still climbing, just more slowly.
Prices rarely go back down. The only real defense is making sure your expenses drop faster than prices are rising.
Sources: 1. CNN (via KVIA); 2. Bureau of Labor Statistics; 3. U.S. Department of Agriculture Economic Research Service; 4. PolitiFact; 5. The Senior Citizens League
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