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President Donald Trump has a new favorite line about your grocery and gas bills.
“When I took over, I inherited the greatest inflation in history,” he told TIME in a Sept. 28 interview at the White House. “The only thing I have to get down now is the gas, and almost everything else is coming down rapidly.” (1)
He also said, “I’ve taken drug costs down by 40, 50, 60, 70%, 80%.” (1)
I’ve been a CPA since 1981, and investing for 45 years. I’ve lived through every inflation scare since the Carter years. Some of what the president said holds up. Some doesn’t. And retirees on fixed incomes need the real numbers, not the talking points.
Start with the big picture. Prices rose 3.4% over the 12 months ending in August, the same pace as July, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Gasoline alone was up 27.4%. (2)
The Federal Reserve also just raised interest rates for the first time since 2023. (3) And TIME’s own fact-checkers flagged several of the president’s claims. (4)
Here are five of Trump’s money claims from that interview, checked against the government’s numbers.
1. “The greatest inflation in history”: False
Inflation under President Joe Biden peaked around 8% in 2022, the highest since 1980, TIME noted. In 1980, prices rose 13.5%. (4)
I remember 1980 well. Inflation was in the double digits, and mortgage rates were on their way toward 18%. That was the worst inflation of my lifetime: 2022 wasn’t in the same ballpark.
By the time Biden left office, inflation had cooled to 2.9%. (4) Today it’s 3.4%. (2) Verdict: false, and not close.
2. “Almost everything else is coming down rapidly”: Mostly false
Some prices really are falling. Eggs, for example, are well off their peak. Credit where it’s due.
But the overall price level isn’t dropping. It’s still rising 3.4% a year. (2) Slower isn’t lower.
Food at home is up 2.2% from a year ago, shelter is up 3% and electricity is up 3.8%. (2) For a retired couple spending $4,000 a month, 3.4% inflation means about $1,600 more a year for the same life.
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3. “The only thing I have to get down now is the gas”: Half right
He’s right that gas is the sore spot. Gasoline is up 27.4% from a year ago, and energy prices overall are up 16.3%. (2)
But “the only thing” is a stretch, as the numbers above show. And for retirees who drive to doctors, grandkids and part-time jobs, gas isn’t a rounding error.
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4. “I’ve taken drug costs down by … 80%”: Unproven
The administration has struck deals with drugmakers that cut list prices on some medicines. But the government’s own inflation data shows nothing like an 80% drop. Medical care prices overall are up 1.6% over the past year. (2)
For people on Medicare, the biggest relief is the yearly cap on Part D out-of-pocket drug costs, which Congress created in 2022. That cap is $2,100 in 2026 and rises to $2,400 in 2027. The maximum deductible goes from $615 to $700. (5)
Translation: your drug bill could go up next year, not down. Compare plans during Medicare open enrollment, Oct. 15 to Dec. 7.
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5. The Fed shouldn’t raise rates: Savers disagree
Asked about the Fed, Trump said, “I don’t think they should” raise rates again. (1) On Sept. 16, he went further: “Interest Rates in the United States should be 1%, or less.” (6)
That day, the Fed raised its benchmark a quarter point, to a range of 3.75% to 4%. (3) With inflation at 3.4%, a 1% rate might be good for borrowers, but it would mean savers lose ground every single year.
Here’s what retirees miss in this fight: Higher rates help savers. Some CDs now pay more than 4%. (7) That’s real income on safe money. If you’re a borrower — a credit card, a HELOC, a new mortgage — higher rates hurt.
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The bottom line
Trump deserves some credit. Egg prices fell, and the official poverty rate hit a record low of 10.2% last year. (8) But by Census’ broader measure, which counts taxes and medical bills, poverty was 13.1%, well above its 2021 low. (4)
Presidents of both parties take credit when prices cool and blame the other guy when they don’t. Your grocery receipt doesn’t care who’s in the White House.
So judge the economy by your own budget, not by a speech. If your costs are rising faster than your income, don’t wait for Washington to fix it. Fix what you can this month.
Sources: 1. TIME; 2. Bureau of Labor Statistics; 3. Axios; 4. TIME; 5. Medicare.gov; 6. Yahoo Finance; 7. NerdWallet; 8. Stateline
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