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President Donald Trump has a favorite stock market talking point: your 401(k).
In remarks on Sept. 12, he said, “401ks are up about $46,000.” (1) Back in June, it was “almost $30,000.” (2) PolitiFact rated both claims Mostly False. (1)(2)
Here’s what the data actually shows. Fidelity, which tracks more than 25 million 401(k) accounts, found the average balance rose $9,454 from the end of 2024 through March 2026. PolitiFact estimates that even with later market gains, the figure only reaches about $11,300. (1)
Fidelity’s latest report puts the average 401(k) at a record $155,800, up 13% in a year. (3) That’s great news. It’s also nowhere near a $46,000 gain for most people.
I’ve been a CPA since 1981, and I’ve made a few million in the stock market over the past 45 years. So I’m not here to knock a good market. It has been good.
But if you’re within 10 years of retirement, a fat 401(k) statement can hide a risk that’s more important than any boast. Here are seven things to know.
1. Averages flatter almost everyone’s account
Averages get pulled up by the big balances at the top. That’s why Vanguard’s median is a better guide to what a typical saver has.
In Vanguard’s latest “How America Saves” report, the average balance was $167,970. The median was just $44,115. (4)
In other words, a $46,000 gain would be more than the typical account’s entire balance. If your statement shows a smaller jump, you didn’t do something wrong. The talking point just doesn’t describe you.
2. Nearly half of private-sector workers aren’t even in a plan
The Bureau of Labor Statistics says 72% of private-industry workers have access to a retirement plan, but only 52% participate. (5)
So for millions of Americans, the question isn’t how much their 401(k) went up. It’s whether they have one at all.
If you’re one of them and you’re over 50, you still have time. An IRA, a Roth IRA or a plan at a new job can all get the ball rolling.
3. Credit where it’s due: the market has delivered
The S&P 500 gained about 16% in 2025, closing the year at 6,845.50. (6) It closed Sept. 29 at 7,670.84, up roughly 12% more this year. (7)
That’s a strong run, and plenty of retirement savers are richer for it. Fidelity counted 769,000 401(k) millionaires in its latest quarter. (8)
My problem isn’t that the numbers are good. It’s what good numbers tend to make people do: nothing.
Quick gut-check — if your money advice is coming from random online influencers, you’re playing a dangerous game. I’ve been a CPA since 1981 and writing about money since before the internet existed. Sign up for the free Money Talks Newsletter and get expert advice that’s been tested by time.
4. A long rally quietly loads you up on risk
When stocks soar, they become a bigger slice of your account without you lifting a finger. Fidelity found that about half of its 401(k) participants 70 and older hold more stock than the firm recommends. (9)
That’s a problem because of what planners call sequence-of-returns risk. A crash right before or right after you retire does far more damage than the same crash 10 years later, because you’re selling shares to live on. (10)
I was a stockbroker during the 1987 crash, when stocks lost more than 20% in one day. In 2008, the S&P 500 lost about 37%, dividends included. (11) Nobody rings a bell before either one.
5. Lock in some gains while you have them
Rebalancing simply means trimming what’s grown too big and putting the money somewhere safer. Schwab suggests keeping about a year of expenses in cash and two to four years in high-quality short-term bonds. (10)
For the cash piece, don’t settle for a big bank paying almost nothing.
SoFi offers a combined checking-and-savings account with no account fees. With eligible direct deposit or $5,000+ in qualifying deposits every 31 days, you can earn 3.10% APY on savings — many times the national average — plus 0.50% APY on checking. (APYs are variable and can change at any time.) Check out SoFi today.
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6. Make sure everything isn’t riding on one market
Stocks, bonds and funds can all fall together in a bad year. That’s why some people keep a small slice of retirement money in something that doesn’t always move with Wall Street.
Many investors diversify with physical gold and silver. A Gold or Silver IRA from Anthem Gold Group makes them part of your retirement, tax-advantaged. Request the free guide — no cost, no obligation.
Keep it a small slice, not a bet-the-farm move.
7. Get a second set of eyes before you retire
The right mix of stocks, bonds and cash depends on your age, taxes, income and when you’ll start withdrawals. A political talking point can’t tell you that. Neither can a quarterly statement.
When retirement is approaching is the perfect time to put an expert on your team. They’re not hard to find. For example, SmartAsset matches you, free, with up to three fiduciary advisors who are legally required to put your interests first. In addition to investment advice, they can spot tax savings and Social Security strategies you’d miss. Have $100K+ in investments? Get matched free in minutes.
The bottom line
The president is right that the market has been kind to retirement savers. He’s wrong about how kind, at least for the typical account.
Ignore the national number and look at your own. Open your statement, check how much of it is now in stocks, and ask yourself one question: if the market dropped 30% the month you retired, would you be OK?
If the answer is no, rebalance while the numbers are still smiling at you.
Bull markets make everyone feel like a genius. The trick is acting like one before the music stops.
Sources: 1. PolitiFact; 2. PBS NewsHour; 3. Fidelity Investments; 4. Vanguard; 5. Bureau of Labor Statistics; 6. ABC News; 7. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED); 8. Yahoo Finance; 9. TheStreet; 10. Charles Schwab; 11. NYU Stern School of Business
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