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“It’s all gone.”
That’s how President Donald Trump described what could happen to your tax cuts if Republicans start “losing a couple of little elections.”
At a midterm rally in Grand Island, Nebraska, on Oct. 5, he went further: “All of your tax cuts will be, your taxes will be double, triple, you’ll end up in a depression.” (1)
I’ve been a CPA since 1981. In more than 35 years of writing about money, I’ve watched both parties use your tax bill as a campaign prop. So let’s check this one against the law itself.
The 2025 tax law known as the One Big Beautiful Bill Act permanently extended the tax rates and brackets created by the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, according to Iowa State University’s Center for Agricultural Law and Taxation. It made the bigger standard deduction permanent, too. (2)
But some breaks retirees care about do have an end date, including the new $6,000 deduction for people 65 and older, which the IRS says runs from 2025 through 2028. (3)
And under the Constitution, a tax increase can’t just happen. It has to pass the House and the Senate and go to the president, who can veto it. Overriding a veto takes two-thirds of each chamber. (4)
So is Trump right? On “double, triple,” I don’t think so. On the bigger point — that tax breaks can disappear — he’s partly right, just not the way he means. Here are 5 things retirees should know.
1. Your tax rates are no longer on a timer
The 2025 law permanently extended the 2017 rates and brackets. (2) For 2026, the IRS says a married couple filing jointly gets a $32,200 standard deduction, and the 10% bracket covers the first $24,800 of taxable income. (5)
“Permanent” in Washington means “until Congress changes it.” But changing it takes a new law, not a bad night at the polls.
2. A midterm loss doesn’t rewrite the tax code
Even if one party flips the House in November, any bill raising your taxes would still have to clear the Senate and land on the president’s desk. If he vetoes it, two-thirds of the House and two-thirds of the Senate would have to vote to override. (4)
That’s my read of how the math works: a doubling of your income taxes in the next two years would need either Trump’s own signature or a supermajority in both chambers. I wouldn’t lose sleep over it.
3. The senior deduction really does disappear — on schedule
Here’s the tax increase that is written into the law.
If you’re 65 or older, you can claim an extra $6,000 deduction — $12,000 for a married couple if both qualify — but only for 2025 through 2028. It phases out for modified adjusted gross income over $75,000, or $150,000 for joint filers. (3)
Let’s put a dollar figure on it. Take a married couple, both over 65, with income below the phase-out. In the 12% bracket, that $12,000 deduction saves them $1,440 a year. A couple near the top of the income limit, in the 22% bracket, could save as much as $2,640.
Unless Congress extends it, that break is scheduled to end after the 2028 tax year — no matter who wins in November.
Quick gut-check — if your money advice is coming from random online influencers, you’re playing a dangerous game. I’ve been a CPA since 1981 and writing about money since before the internet existed. Sign up for the free Money Talks Newsletter and get expert advice that’s been tested by time.
4. The tax increase nobody votes on
There’s a quieter squeeze that rarely shows up in a stump speech. Your Social Security benefits can become taxable when your combined income — half your benefits plus your other income — tops $25,000 if you file individually or $32,000 if you file jointly. (6)
Those thresholds aren’t indexed to prices or wages, a 2016 Social Security Administration research summary notes. (7) So as benefits and other income rise over time, more retirees end up paying tax on their checks — with no vote in Congress at all.
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5. Plan for the tax law you have, not the one in a speech
If you’re over 65, the next few years come with a deduction that’s scheduled to vanish after 2028. (3) That makes now a good time to map out your taxable income year by year, instead of reacting to whatever gets said at a rally.
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My honest take
Campaign season turns the tax code into a horror movie. Both parties do it, and they always have.
“Double, triple” is a scare line, not a forecast. Your rates were made permanent, and raising them takes a new law that would have to get past this president or a two-thirds vote of both chambers.
The real risk for retirees is quieter: a senior deduction that ends on schedule and Social Security thresholds that never move. Plan around those.
Vote however you like. Just don’t do your tax planning at a rally.
Sources: 1. Roll Call Factbase; 2. Iowa State University Center for Agricultural Law and Taxation; 3. IRS; 4. National Archives; 5. IRS; 6. Social Security Administration; 7. Social Security Administration (2016 research summary)
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