Where to?
For travelers, the possibilities seem endless, but a new risk analysis by international security and medical services provider Global Guardian may make you reconsider destinations for the new year.
“Almost half of the countries in the world now have multiple risk levels across the board,” the company’s CEO Dale Buckner told USA TODAY.
“The world is changing in real time,” he added. When deciding on a destination, he said, “You need to understand the environment. You need to understand the countries to its right, left, north, south, east, west. You need to understand the region.”
Here are the top takeaways from Global Guardian’s 2027 Global Risk Map and Buckner’s time-tested tips on preparing for any trip.
How It Works
To assess risk, Global Guardian weighed factors like crime, conflict, political stability, civil unrest, terrorism, wrongful detentions, cybersecurity, health, infrastructure and natural disasters. The analysis also takes into account input from teams on the ground in more than 150 countries.
Destinations were ranked low (green), moderate (yellow), medium (orange), high (burnt orange) or extreme risk (red), with risk broken out by region.
Mexico, for instance, is a kaleidoscope of colors on the 2027 Global Risk Map.
“The risk rating on the border and the risk rating in the western half where the cartels are very active could be very high risk, whereas if you go to the inner circle of Mexico City, Guadalajara, it could be medium to low risk,” said Buckner.
The State Department also offers travel advisories, but the two rankings don’t necessarily align. One key difference is the agency uses four levels instead of five. It also only looks at foreign countries, whereas Global Guardian ranks the United States as moderate risk. Over the years, numerous international travelers have told USA TODAY they’re afraid to visit America due to concerns ranging from detention at the border to gun violence.
“It’s not low risk. Our murder rate is the highest amongst any modern developed country in the world,” Buckner said. He also cited environmental risks like the devastating Palisades Fire in Southern California and floods in Asheville, North Carolina, from Hurricane Helene.
10 Most Dangerous Destinations
- Ethiopia
- Gaza Strip
- Haiti
- Iran
- Mali
- Myanmar
- Niger
- Somalia
- Ukraine
- Yemen
Buckner added that many places in the Middle East North Africa region have increased in risk since the start of the U.S. war with Iran.
He also noted Saudi Arabia’s medium-risk ranking predated recent Houthi attacks, including on Riyadh’s airport. “If we had to redo the map today for Saudi Arabia, it would be extreme high risk right now,” he said.
5 Safest Destinations
- Iceland
- Japan
- Malta
- Monaco
- Singapore
Buckner described all five destinations as “wildly secure, wildly stable at this point, outside of tsunami (risk) in Japan.”
Other low-risk countries on the map include Croatia, Switzerland and New Zealand.
However, he noted, “There’s always a caveat … Even in the green countries, bad things can still happen. But in the aggregate, statistically, from a data standpoint, yes, these are wildly safe.”
Notable Changes
Buckner flagged a few other findings from the 2027 rankings.
Jamaica’s risk lowered from high to medium.
“Kingston, the capital city, you saw the murder rate go down. The board of tourism has put an enormous amount of effort and finance into investing in security and creating a better environment,” Buckner said. The State Department also lowered its travel advisory ranking for Jamaica from Level 3: Reconsider Travel to Level 2: Exercise Increased Caution, this past January.
South Korea and Hungary both saw risk from moderate to low. Global Guardian cited improved political stability in South Korea and lower risk of civil unrest in Hungary following the ouster of its prime minister and his party from power.
On the flip side, Cuba’s risk increased from moderate to medium.
“You’ve seen that the United States has boxed out both Russia and China from bringing oil and gasoline and support into the western region. From a political standpoint, from a military standpoint, from a geo-economic standpoint, the United States, they think this is a great thing. It’s all where you sit,” said Buckner. “The counter narrative is Cuba no longer has electricity. Cuba’s having a tough time bringing in basic food sources and supplies.”
Ecuador’s risk increased from medium to high due to gang violence and drug activity.
Where to Go, How to Prepare
Buckner, a former Green Beret who served 24 years in Special Forces, said he never tells clients not to go to specific destinations, though he may suggest tabling some leisure trips.
He urges travelers to consider:
- If you have a medical emergency, how will you get care?
- If you purchase travel insurance, what does it actually cover?
- If there is a conflict of any kind, who will you call to help get you to safety?
- If you are detained abroad, who is going to legally represent you internationally?
- If you are kidnapped, who is going to negotiate getting you to safety and what will that cost?
- If your devices are stolen, how do you shut them off to keep bad actors out?
- If you are hacked, who’s going to remediate that?
- Do you have an encrypted VPN to protect your online activity and prevent tracking?
Buckner encourages travelers to prepare a checklist with answers before leaving home, so that “when you’re under duress and/or scared and/or nervous and/or stressed, now you have the highest probability of having a positive outcome.”
The State Department also encourages travelers to sign up for its free Smart Traveler Enrollment Program before going abroad, but Buckner warns travelers not to solely rely on embassies for help.
Reporting by Eve Chen, USA TODAY / USA TODAY
USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect
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