There’s a bright spot among rising food prices at the grocery store: the average cost of a Thanksgiving meal is going down.
A Thanksgiving meal for 10 will cost $78.93 or be 0.4% cheaper than a year ago, including dessert, according to an analysis by the Wells Fargo Agri-Food Institute.
However, some shoppers may not notice the Thanksgiving savings, said Michael Swanson, chief agricultural economist for Wells Fargo.
“It’s hard to convince people because when they go in (to the store), they’re certainly going to throw more things into their shopping cart than just the menu, and they’re not going to hit that register with this price point,” he said.
Why the Cost of Thanksgiving Is Going Down
The price of turkey and other common Thanksgiving dishes are not among the categories of food that have seen increases, like beef and chocolate, Swanson told USA TODAY. Additionally, turkey tends to be a loss leader for grocers, or an item that retailers will often sell at a loss in order to get shoppers to buy other items, he said.
In its analysis, Wells Fargo said six of the 10 food items in the Thanksgiving meal cost less than last year, including turkey (down 0.5%), cranberries (down 6.6%), and frozen vegetables (down 4.2%).
Pre-packaged salad prices remained unchanged.
Among the side dishes that are seeing increases, there are no major price shocks, according to the report. Pumpkin pie prices are up 2.5% and gravy mix is up 2.2% or slightly above the 1.8% food-at-home inflation rate. Mashed potato prices are up 1.3%.
While pumpkin pie prices have experienced the biggest increase, shoppers are increasingly buying the 58-ounce size, which costs about 11 cents per ounce compared to 26 cents for a 22-ounce pie.
Shoppers are finding savings by trading up in size to the larger pumpkin pies at warehouse clubs, which are a better value per serving, Swanson said.
“If you have a bigger crew, club stores have really gained market share because they do offer a great value for the people that can use it,” he said.
The full 10-person Wells Fargo menu for the analysis includes turkey, stuffing, frozen vegetables, prepared mashed potatoes, gravy, fresh cranberries, dinner rolls, salad mix, pumpkin pie, whipped cream for the pie, beer, table wine and sparking water.
Drinks Can Add Up
Wells Fargo did a second cost analysis for the Thanksgiving meal, adding beverages, including wine, beer and sparking water to the celebration. The cost of that meal is $127.54 or $12.75 per person. That is 0.5% higher than last year’s costs, but still below the 1.8% increase in food-at-home prices that occurred over the last 12 months ending in September, Wells Fargo said.
The beverages were the culprit for increasing the price of the overall expanded meal. Wine and beer prices are up 0.7% and 1.3% from last year, but sparking water had the highest increase of 6.4%.
Sparkling water is a category that has seen growth among shoppers, said Swanson, and costs have increased due to increases in packaging material.
Another Factor: GLP-1 Medications
There’s another trend that is starting to show some effects on the Thanksgiving meal: GLP-1s.
With about one in eight U.S. adults currently taking a GLP-1, at a 10-person Thanksgiving gathering, the chances of having a GLP-1 user at the table are high, the Wells Fargo report said.
Peer-reviewed research in the Journal of Marketing Research found households cut grocery spending by 5.3% within six months of GLP-1 adoption, with the biggest declines in savory snacks, down 10%. Bakery sweets were down 8.8% while refrigerated dough went down 5.2% and cookies were down 6.5%.
Rolls, stuffing and pie prices from the Thanksgiving meal could be affected by those changes, the report said.
Since a Thanksgiving meal is usually a fixed pre-planned meal, the likelihood that the meal contents or servings will change are low, but what is consumed could change, said Swanson.
“Unless people really step back on what they’re buying, they might end up with a little bit of extra leftovers in the refrigerator,” he said.
Betty Lin-Fisher is a consumer reporter for USA TODAY. Reach her at [email protected] or follow her on X, Facebook or Instagram @blinfisher and @blinfisher.bsky.social on Bluesky. Sign up for our free The Daily Money newsletter, which breaks down complex consumer and financial news. Subscribe here.
Reporting by Betty Lin-Fisher, USA TODAY / USA TODAY
USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect
Add a Comment