On Monday, we told you how random people on the street routinely outsmart experts on Wall Street, at least when it comes to market predictions. Their secret? Wild stabs in the dark.
If you read that story, you know we’ve been doing this experiment for the better part of a decade, and we aren’t stopping in 2012. In the video below, Money Talks News founder Stacy Johnson collects the predictions for this year’s stock, oil, and housing prices from the pros and average Joes. Check it out and take a moment to think about your own guesses.
Here’s a recap of what Wall Street and Main Street are expecting:
- Stocks: The average of Business Insider’s 16 strategists’ 2012 predictions is about an 8 percent increase. The man on the street says: down 2 to 3 percent.
- Oil: The federal government’s U.S. Energy Information Administration predicts oil prices will stick about where they are – $98 a barrel. Main Street expects them to jump up to $115 to 120. (They briefly went that high in February 2011.)
- Housing: Real estate site Zillow surveyed 109 economists, experts, and strategists who – as with oil – expected not much to change. They predict a 0.18 percent (not 18 percent) price drop, while a more optimistic woman from Main Street says they’ll be up 4 percent.
There are plenty more predictions out there – over at Forbes, one expert predicts a 10 percent gain for the stock market; in USA Today, experts predict between 10 and 13 percent gains; a CNBC editor predicts a “rip-your-face-off rally” in stocks (but admits he was wrong on 4 of 5 guesses last year) while another reporter predicts a 5 percent drop in housing. A dime a dozen would be considered price gouging for these predictions.
As we’ve seen year after year, it’s all anyone’s guess. So make your own and share them on our Facebook page or write them down – privately or in the comments below – so you can gloat or laugh with us next year.
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