If you’re flying abroad for vacation this summer, you may need to brace yourself for disruptions.
Airports Council International Europe, a trade group for airfield operators, warned that the global oil shortage resulting from the war in Iran could begin to affect flight operations within weeks.
“(A) systemic jet fuel shortage is set to become a reality for the EU,” a letter from the organization to the EU’s Commissioner for Sustainable Transport and Tourism said, according to a report from CNBC. The missive further warned that it’s likely to impact summer travel in Europe.
U.S. Airlines Not Yet Spared
While ticket prices for flights at most U.S. airlines haven’t yet been affected, low supply is already driving up fuel costs and prompting some airlines to raise fees, such as those for checked bags.
Experts warn that a prolonged shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz, which has already cut off about 20% of the global oil supply according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, could result in more severe cuts to flight schedules in addition to rising prices.
“We are in a global jet fuel shortage right now,” Giacomo Santangelo, a senior lecturer of economics at Fordham University, told USA TODAY. He noted that airlines like SAS and Air New Zealand are already canceling flights, and that U.S.-based United Airlines suggested it could trim as much as 5% of its schedule in the third quarter if fuel prices don’t come down and the supply isn’t boosted.
As the Trump administration begins enforcing its own blockade of the already closed strait, it becomes increasingly likely that the global oil shock will be prolonged.
“The last time we went through this was the 1970s,” Santangelo said. “I don’t want to speak something into existence, but in the 1970s, there was gas rationing.”
What Travelers Should Expect
Diane Merians Penaloza, a lecturer at the City University of New York School of Professional Studies, previously told USA TODAY that a prolonged energy crisis could significantly curtail global flight operations.
“If the Strait of Hormuz stays closed for the next 12-18 months, you’re looking at 30, perhaps 40% fewer seats available globally,” she said.
With so much uncertainty around the global fuel market, Santangelo said travelers need to be prepared for disruptions and the possibility of canceled flights during their summer vacations.
“You have to be flexible. You have to understand; don’t be married to your schedule. It’s likely to change,” he said.
Airlines historically have prioritized flights on domestic routes with multiple daily departures for cancellations, rather than cutting long-haul flights, but Santangelo warned that there’s no guarantee that the same pattern will follow in the current crisis, particularly if airlines aren’t sure they’ll be able to refuel at airports abroad in order to operate flights back to the United States.
“This is a specific situation that we have not experienced in a very long time, so I can’t say how much faith we can put in that behavior continuing into the future,” he said.
Zach Wichter is a travel reporter and writes the Cruising Altitude column for USA TODAY. He is based in New York.
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