The trust fund behind Social Security’s retirement and survivor benefits is projected to run short in late 2032. Current law does not let the program borrow to cover the gap, which means income revenue would cover about 78% of scheduled benefits.
That deadline is roughly six years out. It has pushed a handful of Republicans to say that taxes may have to go up.
What the cut would take from your check
The trustees’ 2026 report projects the retirement and survivor fund will be depleted in the final quarter of 2032.
The average retired worker received about $2,086 a month in July 2026, according to the Social Security Administration. A 22% cut would be roughly $460 less a month on the typical check, about $5,500 a year, and it would affect current and future retirees and survivors the same way.
If you have over $100,000 in savings, you can try to reduce your future dependence on Social Security benefits. Consider running through your options with a pro. SmartAsset offers a free service that matches you to a vetted, fiduciary advisor in under 5 minutes.
Higher taxation could remedy the shortfall
Social Security runs on a payroll tax, 6.2% from the worker and 6.2% from the employer, charged only on wages up to $184,500 in 2026. Earn a dollar above that, and the dollar escapes the tax. Raising the ceiling, or removing it entirely, would pull more high earners’ pay into the system.
Sen. Bernie Moreno, an Ohio Republican, and Sen. Elizabeth Warren, a Massachusetts Democrat, are working toward the second option. In a June 2026 press release, they argued for eliminating the cap, citing an estimate that doing so would bring in around $3 trillion over a decade. They pointed to a 2025 survey in which 62% of Republicans and 65% of Democrats backed the idea.
Other Republicans have edged toward the revenue side. Rep. Tom Cole, who chairs the House Appropriations Committee, told The Washington Post he is willing to look at both the tax rate and the amount of income subject to it. Rep. Lloyd Smucker told Roll Call he expects some change to the payroll side of the ledger. Neither has endorsed the Moreno-Warren plan outright.
Analysts including Charles Blahous, a former Social Security public trustee, warn that taxing wages above the cap without paying those earners a larger benefit in return would weaken the tie between what a worker contributes and what they collect, the feature that has long made the program feel earned rather than granted.
The other objection is political. Grover Norquist, founder of the anti-tax group Americans for Tax Reform, argues the party should close the gap by trimming spending and will pay at the polls if it raises taxes instead.
Either way, nothing has passed. Social Security changes also cannot ordinarily ride through the Senate on the reconciliation process used to bypass a filibuster, so bipartisan support matters.
How can ordinary Americans plan for the shortfall?
The math is not in dispute. The question is whether the government can act to avoid the shortfall. For the moment, this is undetermined.
The possibility of the shortfall may tempt some people to claim early. However, claiming before your full retirement age, which is 67 for anyone born in 1960 or later, locks in a permanently smaller check, and that reduction does not reverse. A funding shortfall would further reduce your already smaller benefit.
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