On April 29, 2025, in an interview with ABC’s Terry Moran marking his first 100 days back in the Oval Office, Trump stated: “Look, since I came in, gasoline is down, groceries are down, egg prices are down — many things are down, just about everything.”
But with many Americans still feeling the pinch at the checkout line, it’s worth asking whether the numbers back him up or if inflation is simply cooling from earlier highs.
What the data shows about grocery prices
Current economic data contradicts Trump’s assertion. According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), while prices for some specific items have decreased — fresh vegetable prices, for example, were 3.0% lower in March compared to March 2024 — the overall trend for grocery prices continues upward.
The USDA projects overall food prices to increase by 3.5% in 2025, with food-at-home prices (grocery store purchases) rising by 3.3%. This exceeds the historical average annual increase of 2.6% recorded from 2005 to 2024.
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Specific food categories showing significant increases
You’ll see substantial price hikes in specific food categories:
- Beef prices are expected to jump 6.3% in 2025.
- Egg prices, which Trump specifically mentioned as decreasing, are projected to surge by 54.6% in 2025, mainly due to ongoing avian flu outbreaks.
According to economist David Bieri of Virginia Tech University, as reported by ABC News, prices are still increasing, just at a slower pace. This distinction between easing inflation and actual price drops is key to understanding the current economic climate.
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The impact of trade policies on consumer prices
Recent tariffs on imports from Mexico, Canada, and China have further complicated the price landscape. According to an April 15 report from The Budget Lab at Yale, these tariffs have increased consumer prices by approximately 3.0% in the short term.
For the average household, this translates to a potential $4,900 cost increase in 2025 if buying habits remain unchanged. Even if families switch to store brands or cheaper alternatives, they could still face a 1.6% price increase, costing about $2,600 more per household annually.
And while the administration announced a 90-day deal on May 12 to reduce tariffs on China to 30%, this is just a temporary pause, so long-term impacts remain uncertain.
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Slowing inflation vs. falling prices
Some confusion may stem from misinterpreting slowing inflation as an actual price decline. A lower inflation rate means prices are still increasing, just at a slower pace, not that they are falling.
So when a politician says prices are “down,” consumers might reasonably expect to pay less than before. But the data suggests otherwise. Most grocery items now cost more than when Trump took office in January 2025. While inflation has eased compared to previous years, prices are still rising overall, not falling.
What to expect for grocery prices
Most economic indicators suggest continued upward pressure on grocery prices throughout 2025. The USDA’s projection of a 3.3% increase for food-at-home prices reflects ongoing challenges in the food supply chain, including weather events, labor costs, and transportation expenses.
The evolving nature of tariff policies adds another layer of uncertainty. As trade negotiations continue and policies shift, consumers may experience varying impacts across different product categories.
While the administration has pledged to address rising costs, current data does not support the claim that grocery prices have decreased since January. Instead, most American households now face higher costs at the checkout counter compared to when Trump took office at the beginning of the year.
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