Toy prices rose at a record pace this spring, increasing 2.2% between April and May while overall inflation rose just 0.1%, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Industry experts warn that toy prices may climb further as fresh tariffs on Chinese imports continue to strain supply chains, The Washington Post reports.
The numbers behind the price tags
With more than 75% of toys sold in the U.S. imported from China, the toy industry is among the first to reflect the impact of recent tariffs, according to The Washington Post.
The outlet reports that import taxes on Chinese goods have reached as high as 145% this year, though a reprieve has lowered them to 30%, for now.
That temporary reduction is scheduled to expire in early August. Unlike in previous years, the current tariffs do not include carve-outs for the toy industry.
How toy companies are coping — and passing on costs
Both small toy companies and industry giants are struggling to absorb ballooning expenses, the Washington Post reports.
Douglas, a New Hampshire-based toy company, imports from Indonesia, Vietnam, and China and receives as many as 30 shipping containers per month, each filled with about $100,000 in merchandise.
Company president Scott Clarke said each shipment now comes with tariff charges ranging from $10,000 to $145,000.
While his company has absorbed part of those costs, rising expenses ultimately forced a 5% price increase that’s now being passed along to retailers and consumers.
Even major players are under pressure. Mattel — the maker of Barbie and Hot Wheels — recently withdrew its financial forecast, citing volatile trade policies and growing uncertainty around consumer demand.
Hasbro, which makes Monopoly and Play-Doh, cut 3% of its workforce in June, after warning that higher tariffs could lead to both job losses and price hikes.
What shoppers are seeing in stores
In toy stores, the effects are already visible.
Prices for popular items such as Jellycat stuffed animals, Crocodile Creek puzzles, and Jellystone Designs’s Calm Down sensory bottles have risen by 20% to 30%, Rodrigues told The Washington Post.
Rodrigues, who runs Merci Milo toy shops in Los Angeles and Portland, said fast-changing trade policies have made pricing unpredictable.
Rodrigues told The Washington Post that each shipment now arrives with an unexpected tariff charge — sometimes $50, other times $2,500.
Even when working with European or Japanese brands, many toys still rely on Chinese manufacturing or components, making tariffs hard to avoid.
Shifting strategies ahead of the holidays
As the holidays approach, many small toy stores are scaling back. Rather than gambling on new, untested products, they’re sticking to reliable classics like board games and arts-and-crafts kits.
Amy Rutherford, owner of Pippin Toy in Alexandria, Virginia, told The Washington Post that customers are gravitating towards lower-priced items, such as $30 plush toys instead of higher-end options.
Her store is steering clear of major new product launches this year and focusing on proven bestsellers.
The Washington Post notes that some retailers expect these trends to persist.
A toy story with no easy ending
Isaac Larian, CEO of MGA Entertainment, the company behind L.O.L. Surprise, Bratz, and Little Tikes, warned that what we’re seeing now is only the beginning.
He warned that the toy industry could face a domino effect, with rising costs, reduced innovation, and even product shortages as businesses struggle to adjust to shifting trade policies.
The sector’s deep reliance on Chinese manufacturing and safety labs complicates efforts to relocate production or avoid tariffs, The Washington Post explains.
Retailers and manufacturers say the impact is likely to intensify in the coming months, particularly for families already struggling with rising living costs.
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