Gold has taken investors on a remarkable ride over the past year. It first smashed through the historic $4,000-an-ounce milestone in October 2025, surged to an all-time high of nearly $5,600 in January, then pulled back sharply.
Goldman Sachs still sees reasons to be optimistic. The Wall Street giant says the long-term bull case remains intact, with continued central bank buying and an eventual rebound in investor demand potentially lifting prices to $4,900 an ounce by the end of 2026.
With gold trading near $4,000 an ounce at the end of June, that forecast would imply a sizable rebound, though still short of the metal’s January peak.
Goldman still likes gold
“Gold is not done,” Goldman Sachs co-head of global commodities research Samantha Dart wrote in a note Sunday evening, according to Yahoo Finance. Goldman’s bullish outlook rests on two themes: structural demand that it believes will continue for years, and cyclical factors that could improve once interest-rate pressures ease.
The biggest pillar of its forecast is continued buying by central banks, particularly in emerging markets. Since Western governments froze Russia’s foreign exchange reserves in 2022, many central banks have accelerated efforts to diversify away from traditional reserve assets, making gold an increasingly attractive alternative.
Goldman also pointed to the latest World Gold Council survey, which found a record 45% of the 76 central banks surveyed between February and May expect to increase their gold holdings over the next year.
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Higher interest rates remain a headwind
The bank acknowledges that gold faces challenges in the near term. Markets have become increasingly concerned that sticky inflation could keep the Federal Reserve on hold for longer or even force policymakers to raise interest rates again this year.
That matters because gold generates no income. When bond yields rise, investors often shift money into interest-bearing assets, reducing demand for bullion and gold-backed exchange-traded funds.
Goldman, however, expects those pressures to ease over time. Its economists believe the Fed will keep rates unchanged this year before beginning an easing cycle in the second half of 2027. Markets often move before policy does, so expectations for future cuts could help gold before the Fed actually starts lowering rates.
The shine is not gone
Goldman says the recent decline does not undermine the broader bull case. Instead, the bank sees the pullback as a period when short-term pressure from interest rates has temporarily outweighed longer-term demand from central banks and investors seeking diversification.
The bank also pointed to concerns about Western fiscal sustainability as a possible reason more private investors may turn to gold over time. If those concerns grow, gold could benefit from renewed demand as a store of value.
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