Holiday shopping no longer waits for Thanksgiving. One in 4 shoppers already bought holiday items during June promotions, and 4 in 10 had plans to shop October sales events, according to Deloitte’s 2026 holiday retail survey of 4,000 U.S. consumers.
Deloitte’s survey projects that 28% of shoppers’ holiday budgets are likely to be spent by the end of October, the highest share in six years. The professional services firm expects the average household to spend $1,654 over the 2026 season, up 4% from 2025.
The busiest stretch is still ahead. Shopping activity peaks in late November and early December, when 77% and 78% of shoppers expect to be buying. Here is how to make sure there is money left when it arrives.
1. Check the return deadline on anything you bought in October
Extended holiday return windows can start later than the deals do. Amazon’s holiday policy, which the company says will apply every year, covers most items bought from Nov. 1 through Dec. 31 and accepts returns until Jan. 31, 2027.
Items bought in October fall under the standard policy, generally 30 days from delivery.
That means a sweater ordered Oct. 10 for a December gift exchange may be past its return window before anyone opens it. Check each retailer’s policy at checkout, and put the last return date on your calendar.
2. Do not let deals set the budget
Deals do not guarantee a smaller bill. Deloitte classified 38% of shoppers as holiday value seekers, people who use five or more money-saving tactics such as waiting for deals and switching brands, yet they expect to spend 12% more than everyone else.
Write a dollar amount next to each name before browsing a sale, and buy only what fits. A markdown on something not on the list still adds to the total.
3. Watch the gifts you buy for yourself
Self-gifting keeps climbing. Among shoppers planning or considering a gift for themselves, the average expected spend is $299, up 13% from 2025 and 20% from 2024. A treat bought on sale in October still comes out of the same holiday pot.
4. Choose the experience or the present
Half of shoppers plan to give an experience, such as a show, a class or a meal out, up from 39% in 2024. Yet 79% of those shoppers also plan to give a physical item. Deciding on one or the other for each person on your list can keep costs from doubling.
5. Add up what is already gone
A gift bought in June counts against the same budget as one bought on Dec. 20, but it is easy to forget. Before the next sale, total what you have spent so far, including holiday food. Even a bargain like Aldi’s Thanksgiving meal deal belongs in the tally. Subtract it all from your holiday number, and whatever is left is your real budget for the rest of the season.
6. Keep every receipt in one place
A running total is only as good as the receipts behind it. Pick one folder, one envelope or one app and stick with it through New Year’s.
Fetch is a free app that lets you snap photos of receipts to earn points, which you can redeem for gift cards from retailers like Target, Amazon and Walmart. That turns the paper trail into something you can spend, and a gift card earned from October receipts can cover a stocking stuffer in December.
Leave room for the late-November rush
Big-ticket items deserve the most caution, since one purchase can eat the cushion. Costco has flagged rising electronics costs, so a tablet or TV on the list may cost more than it did a year ago. Pricing those gifts first, before the smaller stuff, shows how much room is really left.
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