President Donald Trump is not running in this year’s midterm elections, but he’d like voters to act as if he is.
“Just close your eyes and pretend I’m on the ballot,” Trump told a crowd in Mobile, Alabama.
Trump’s argument is simple: When he’s on the ballot, Republicans running for election do well. When he’s not, they don’t. Historically, that’s often − but not always − been true. However, if Americans are judging the GOP based on the economy, their top issue in poll after poll, he may not like how some of them vote.
An AP-NORC poll found 25% of U.S. adults approve of Trump’s handling of the economy, and a Reuters/Ipsos poll revealed 36% of voters thought Democrats were better poised to tackle the cost of living, compared to 28% who chose Republicans.
Presidents typically have less influence over the economy than some Americans think. The Federal Reserve controls monetary policy. Congress controls the federal budget. External shocks, like the pandemic, are out of their control.
But in his second term, some argue Trump has impacted voters’ wallets in ways his recent predecessors did not. Sweeping tariffs and the Iran war have both driven prices up. Meanwhile, “Trump Accounts” and promised checks aim to give Americans money directly.
Here’s a midterms check-in on the U.S. economy in Trump’s second term:
Consumer Sentiment
Trump says the United States has the best economy anywhere in the world.
“There’s no economy like this economy,” Trump told reporters in September. “The only thing we don’t have is good public relations. We don’t seem to be able to get the word across.”
According to the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index, which tracks household views on personal finances and broader economic conditions, Americans aren’t feeling it. The index stood at 48 in October. It was little changed from September and still near the record low of 44.8 set in May. The index is down 31.9% from 70.5 in October 2024.
A separate measure of how Americans feel about the economy, the Conference Board’s consumer confidence index, rose to 91.7 in October from a revised 84.2 in September, but it remained below its revised October 2024 reading of 109.6.
Inflation
On the presidential campaign trail, Trump routinely promised to lower the cost of living.
“Prices will come down,” Trump told a crowd in Asheville, North Carolina, Aug. 14, 2024. “You just watch: They’ll come down, and they’ll come down fast, not only with insurance, with everything.”
Two years later, some prices for specific goods like eggs have declined, but the cost of living is up by most measures.
Consumer price inflation was up 2.4% over the year in September 2024. Hourly earnings for private nonfarm workers − which rose 4% on average over the year in the same month − were outpacing the rate of price increases.
Today, workers’ wages, which rose 3% on average over the year this September, are not keeping up. Year-over-year consumer prices were up 3.7% in the same month.
Shelter costs, as measured by the Labor Department’s Consumer Price Index, rose 6.9% from September 2024 to September 2026. Food prices rose 5.7% over the same period, according to the department’s data.
Gas Prices
Before retaking office, Trump promised to bring gas prices down below $2 a gallon.
“It’ll be an economic revival of our country like no one has ever seen before,” Trump said at the Economic Club of New York on Sept. 5, 2024. “Energy was what caused our problem initially. Energy is going to bring us back. That means we’re going down and getting gasoline below $2 a gallon.”
Americans filling up at the gas pump likely already know that is one promise that the president has not been able to keep. Gas prices surged after the start of the Iran war earlier this year. The Russia-Ukraine war and conflict in the Red Sea are also limiting the global oil supply, driving prices higher.
On Oct. 14, the United States set a record. The national average price for a gallon of regular gasoline remained over $4 more days of the year than ever before, according to GasBuddy data, surpassing the previous annual record of 157 days set in 2022. By September 2024, it was hovering near $3.22, according to AAA.
Diesel prices are also up, disproportionately impacting truckers, fishers and farmers, but also any business that relies on the fuel to transport goods. According to AAA, they were hovering near $6.33 per gallon as of late October.
Jobs
In 2024, Trump vowed his administration would help create millions of jobs.
“We will put more money into your pockets and create millions and millions of new jobs,” Trump said at a rally in York, Pennsylvania, on Aug. 19, 2024. “We’re going to do it like nobody else.”
So far, that pledge has not panned out, according to Labor Department data posted Oct. 29.
During his first year back in office, U.S. employers added 116,000 jobs. So far in 2026, they have added about 612,000, the department estimates.
In comparison, U.S. employers added about 1.46 million jobs in 2024 and about 2.52 million in 2023.
Job growth has slowed over the past two years as companies reassess their budgets and staffing needs in response to tariffs and as they adopt artificial intelligence. Broad economic uncertainty is contributing to what economists call a “low-hire” labor market. Meanwhile, a modest decline in labor force participation has reduced the number of new jobs needed to keep the unemployment rate low.
The unemployment rate is near where it was before Trump retook office. It was 4.1% in September 2024 and 4.2% in September 2026.
Manufacturing
Trump also specifically promised a manufacturing boom.
“America will be a manufacturing nation once again,” he said during his second inaugural address on Jan. 20, 2025.
Today, manufacturing employment is down from about 12.76 million in September 2024 to about 12.65 million in September 2026, according to Labor Department data.
However, so far in 2026, manufacturing jobs are up 72,000. That increase is primarily due to gains in durable goods manufacturing, according to the White House Council of Economic Advisers.
“This is a reversal of the trend inherited from the previous administration, which lost over 200K jobs in its final two years,” the council said in an October report citing the department’s data.
GDP
The White House website’s home page says under Trump, the United States has “surged into a new era of prosperity, marked by record-setting economic growth.”
Economic activity is expanding at a “strong” pace, according to Federal Reserve policymakers. However, U.S. real gross domestic product growth itself hasn’t broken any records since Trump retook office.
Annualized real GDP growth was 2.3% in 2025, according to data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. It estimates GDP grew 2.5% in the first quarter, 2.2% in the second quarter, and 3.4% in the third quarter of 2026.
This year’s third-quarter growth estimate surprised forecasters and surpassed their expectations. The Commerce Department said compared to the second quarter, the gains “primarily reflected an acceleration in investment and an upturn in government spending.”
Federal Deficit
A little more than a month after his swearing in, Trump told lawmakers he planned to balance the federal budget − something the government hasn’t managed to accomplish since 2001, according to the Treasury Department.
“In the near future, I want to do what has not been done in 24 years: balance the federal budget,” Trump said in an address to a joint session of Congress March 4, 2025. “We’re going to balance it.”
The federal deficit declined from about $1.82 trillion in fiscal year 2024 to about $1.77 trillion in fiscal year 2025, according to Office of Management and Budget data.
However, according to the office’s monthly budget review released Oct. 8, it estimates the federal budget deficit totaled nearly $2 trillion in fiscal year 2026. This year’s jump was driven by increased outlays for net interest on the debt, major benefit programs, defense and education, the office said.
The national debt has also increased over the last two years. The Treasury estimates it was at $40.17 trillion in September 2026, up from $35.46 trillion in September 2024.
Trade Deficit
Tariffs remain a cornerstone of Trump’s economic policy in his second term.
His decision to impose import taxes on most countries around the world appeared, at least in part, an attempt to address his longtime dissatisfaction with the U.S. trade deficit.
“We have deficits with almost every country, not every country, but almost, and we’re going to change it,” Trump told reporters Feb. 2, 2025. “It’s been unfair.”
The U.S. goods and services trade deficit was $117.07 billion in February last year as importers rushed orders before anticipated tariffs took effect.
It was $105.57 billion in August this year, down from February 2025, but up from $71.16 billion in August 2024, according to U.S. Census Bureau and Bureau of Economic Analysis data.
Taxes
While campaigning in 2024, Trump pledged to lower Americans’ taxes.
By one measure, he succeeded. The average tax refund was $3,276 in 2026, up 11.5% from $2,939 in 2025, according to the IRS.
However, because average tax refunds measure the difference between what Americans prepaid during the year and what they actually owed, rather than their total tax liability, they are often an imperfect reflection of Americans’ overall tax burden.
The president also followed through on his campaign promise to restrict taxes on tips and overtime, though reaping the benefits has been difficult for some.
High-income Americans benefited more than most from Republicans’ “One Big Beautiful Bill,” the sweeping spending and tax legislation Trump signed into law in July 2025.
Stock Market
The president took credit for stock market gains even before retaking office, referring to them as a result of “the Trump effect” the day before his inauguration in 2025.
On Oct. 17 this year, Trump posted a photo to Truth Social stating the S&P 500 index surged 30% from 5,881 points in December 2024 to 7,651 points in September 2026.
As of late October, S&P 500 annual returns are up about 13% year-to-date. This follows a 16.39% gain in 2025, according to Macrotrends, an investor research platform. Both of these figures represent a slowdown from the index’s 23.31% return in 2024.
Housing Affordability
At a 2024 campaign rally, Trump pledged to bring down mortgage rates.
“We will drive down the rates so you will be able to pay 2% again, and we will be able to finance or refinance your homes drastically at much lower costs,” Trump told a Tucson, Arizona, crowd Sept. 12, 2024.
Since then, mortgage rates are up. The average fixed rate on a 30-year mortgage was hovering above 6% in October 2024 and higher than 7% in October 2026, according to Freddie Mac data.
The median sales price for new homes has fallen. It stood at $415,300 in the third quarter of 2024 and at $393,300 in the third quarter of 2026, according to federal government data.
Meanwhile, an August Redfin report found that Americans need to earn $109,796 to afford the typical home for sale in the United States, down 0.5% from an all-time high of $110,382 in 2025. Still, the income needed to purchase a home is about $22,000 more than what the typical American household earns, the report said.
Benefits
A little more than a week after retaking office, Trump said he was going to “love and cherish” Medicaid and Medicare.
“We’re not going to do anything with that, other than if we can find some abuse or waste, we’ll do something, but the people won’t be affected,” Trump said in the Oval Office on Jan. 31, 2025.
A few months later, he signed the “One Big Beautiful Bill” into law. Soon after, the Congressional Budget Office projected that the law’s changes, including cuts and new eligibility requirements impacting Medicaid and other programs, would affect millions of Americans.
According to an August 2025 analysis by Georgetown University’s Center for Children and Families, which cited CBO estimates, those changes would increase the number of uninsured people by 1.3 million in 2026 and by 10 million by 2034.
Reporting by Rachel Barber and Stephen J. Beard, USA TODAY. Reach economy reporter Rachel Barber at [email protected]. Reach graphics journalist Stephen Beard at [email protected].
USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect
Add a Comment