In 1981, I walked into an E.F. Hutton office with a fresh CPA certificate and a bad case of career boredom. The branch manager looked over my application and told me he’d rather be interviewing a used-car salesman.
I got the job anyway. That leap from government auditor to stockbroker put me on Wall Street for the next decade. But I made it by choice, on my own schedule.
Millions of Americans may not get that luxury.
A recent report by the McKinsey Global Institute, the consulting firm’s research arm, estimates that about 11 million U.S. workers — roughly 7% of everyone with a job — may have to move into a completely different occupation by 2035.
Depending on how fast employers adopt artificial intelligence, McKinsey says that number could be as low as 6 million or as high as 16 million.
Here’s the part that should worry you: The researchers figure only about 1 in 7 of those workers can make the jump with little or no retraining.
Nearly half face what McKinsey calls an “unpaved” path — a big skills gap, a pay cut or years of schooling before the new job is within reach.
It isn’t that the work disappears. McKinsey projects automation will eat about 36 million jobs’ worth of demand over the decade, while the economy adds demand for more than 40 million. The problem is who loses and who gains.
The jobs shrinking are mostly lower-paid. The jobs growing are mostly better-paid — and guarded by credentials many workers don’t have. Nobody’s building the bridge between the two.
That’s a system problem, not a you problem. But it becomes your problem the day your position gets eliminated. And if you’ve been uneasy about all this, you’ve got company: Most Americans expect AI to cost jobs, not create them.
Here’s how to tell whether you’re on the list.
1. Most of your day is office work
Office and administrative support jobs are the most exposed in the report. McKinsey estimates that by 2035, roughly 80% of the hours now worked in those jobs could be automated or heavily assisted by AI. Individual jobs in the group range from about 48% to 96%.
Think about what fills an office assistant’s day: scheduling, data entry, answering the same five questions, copying information from one screen to another. That’s exactly what software does well. And software doesn’t take lunch.
According to the report, office assistants are one of five occupations that together account for about a third of the workers who may need to switch. The other four are customer service reps, retail sales associates, cashiers and warehouse workers.
2. You sell to, ring up or answer customers
Retail and sales come next. McKinsey figures automation could take on 68% of the hours in those occupations. Call centers, where scripts and routine questions are the whole job, land in the report’s most-disrupted category.
You’ve already seen the preview: self-checkout lanes, chatbots that answer before a human ever picks up. Every one of those used to be somebody’s shift.
That doesn’t mean every cashier gets a pink slip. McKinsey expects many jobs to change rather than vanish, with the remaining workers handling the problems the machines can’t. But it takes a lot fewer people to handle the exceptions than to handle everything.
3. You drive or move goods
If you drive a truck or keep a building clean, you might think you’re safe. For now, you may be right.
McKinsey puts tractor-trailer drivers and janitors in a category it calls “latent disruption.” Translation: The technology to take over much of the work exists, but messy real-world conditions, cost and complexity slow it down.
Slow isn’t never. Transportation and logistics is one of three big groups where McKinsey expects jobs to shrink, alongside office support and retail. If this is your line of work, you have something most exposed workers don’t: time. Use it.
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4. Your paycheck is in the bottom 40%
This is the sign that should make lawmakers squirm. McKinsey says more than 70% of the jobs in decline could fall in the bottom two-fifths of the wage scale. Lower-wage workers are about 7.6 times as likely as higher-wage workers to need an entirely new occupation.
Meanwhile, roughly 60% of the job growth lands in the top two-fifths, mostly in health care, construction and management.
In plain English: The people with the thinnest cushion are the most likely to need one. If this describes you, a savings account isn’t optional anymore. It’s your retraining fund. Put it where it earns something — you can compare high-yield savings accounts in our Solutions Center.
5. The job you’d want next requires a credential you don’t have
McKinsey says roughly 85% of growing jobs require a license, certification or other credential — some by law, others because employers insist on it. That’s the locked gate between the jobs going away and the jobs coming.
And it isn’t quick. According to the report, earning a legally required credential takes about 32 months, on average, for someone with a high school diploma. With a bachelor’s degree, it’s about 17 months.
Nearly three years is a long time to go without a paycheck. That’s why the biggest mistake is waiting until you’re laid off to start.
What to do before the decision gets made for you
Start with the good news. McKinsey expects more jobs than workers in 2035, largely because the population is aging. Retiring baby boomers leave openings, and an older country needs more home health aides, medical technicians and other care workers.
And a switch can pay off big. In one example from the report, an office assistant who moves into project management could see pay jump about 154%. The catch: That path typically means a bachelor’s degree plus a professional certification.
Here’s what I’d do:
- Learn the tools that are coming for your job. McKinsey found demand for AI fluency in job postings has grown elevenfold since 2022, while demand for adaptability has grown fivefold. The worker who knows how to run the software is the last one replaced.
- Pick a target, then price the credential. Find out which licenses the growing jobs near you require, how long they take and what they cost. Not sure what you’d be good at? These free career aptitude tests can narrow it down.
- Start while you’re still getting paid. Night classes and online certificates are a lot easier on a paycheck than on an unemployment check. If money’s tight, a side gig can cover tuition. Here are some ways to make extra money.
- Have a plan if the layoff comes first. Know what you’d do about health insurance, savings and Social Security timing. If you’re older, these tips for starting over after a layoff at 60 are worth a read now, not later.
One more number to keep in mind: McKinsey says about 770,000 workers a year will need to change occupations to keep up — roughly 3.6 times the normal pace. That’s a lot of people competing for the same classes, the same apprenticeships and the same entry-level openings.
Be early.
When I left accounting, I was scared to death. But I learned something that’s served me ever since: The only thing worse than making a career change is having one made for you.
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