Anyone who follows the housing market can’t help but feel like it’s deja vu, all over again.
A little more than a decade ago, house prices soared nationwide, only to crash down to earth spectacularly. In the process, millions of homeowners saw their hard-earned equity disappear almost overnight.
Now, it feels like the same thing might be happening once more.
Most experts say that’s not the case. They caution that things are different this time. For a number of reasons, another housing implosion remains unlikely.
Still, there is no denying that many markets are looking frothy, and modest price declines could be on the horizon.
Recently, the Beracha and Johnson Housing Market Ranking from Florida Atlantic University and Florida International University identified 15 housing markets that are overvalued by at least 50%.
Ken H. Johnson, an economist at FAU’s College of Business, believes the U.S. is now near the peak of the current housing cycle. Johnson and Eli Beracha of FIU’s Hollo School of Real Estate each month rank the most overvalued housing markets in the U.S. In an FAU press release, Johnson says:
“Recent buyers in many of these cities may have to endure stagnant or falling home values while the market settles — and that’s not what they want to hear if they had planned to resell anytime soon.”
Following are many overheated markets that might be headed for some cooling soon.
Premium buyers are paying in this market: 51.16%
Housing values in the Motor City have been chugging along, but it’s possible the wheels could come off soon. As we noted last month, Detroit is among a handful of cities across the nation that showed the first signs of a dip in prices.
Recently, that trend has become more widespread nationwide.
14. Raleigh, North Carolina
Premium buyers are paying in this market: 51.70%
As we recently reported, Raleigh made the list of “10 Smaller Housing Markets That Are Now Red-Hot.” Will the heat continue to rise, or will the flames fall back to earth and burn Raleigh home prices to the ground?
As in so many markets across the country, buyers and sellers will have to wait to see how things play out.
13. Tampa, Florida
Premium buyers are paying in this market: 52.41%
Tampa is the one of three Florida cities on this list. During the pandemic, many people — including hordes of folks from New York and New Jersey — relocated to Florida. That has helped push prices up to what might be unsustainable levels.
12. Lakeland, Florida
Premium buyers are paying in this market: 53.22%
Lakeland is the hottest city in Florida, and it has a housing market to match. Will home prices soon cool down? It’s anybody’s guess.
11. Charlotte, North Carolina
Premium buyers are paying in this market: 55.25%
Charlotte is another Sunbelt city where home prices have been on a scorching tear. Those struggling to afford a home here can at least take some solace in the fact that Charlotte is one of the “15 Cities Where Your Dollar Goes the Furthest.”
10. Salt Lake City
Premium buyers are paying in this market: 55.75%
Salt Lake City is one of “12 Cities Where Home Values Have Jumped Over 40% Since the Pandemic Started.” Average prices here are shooting north toward $600,000, causing the city to crack the top 10 on this list.
9. Spokane, Washington
Premium buyers are paying in this market: 56.25%
Forget Seattle: Spokane is Washington’s standard-bearer for overpriced housing these days. It’s also on the list of “15 Cities Where Homebuyers Are Most Likely to Face Bidding Wars.”
8. Fort Myers, Florida
Premium buyers are paying in this market: 56.26%
Back in 2009, Fort Myers was a poster child for all that had gone wrong in the housing bubble: Years of eye-popping price gains followed by an epic crash.
President Barack Obama even visited the city to tout his economic stimulus plan and the relief he hoped it would bring to down-on-their-luck Americans.
Now, Fort Myers housing is soaring once again. Will the story have a different ending this time?
7. Provo, Utah
Premium buyers are paying in this market: 57.02%
Provo residents are stuck with a dilemma that is common in fast-growing cities. Provo made the list of the “10 Best Places for Career Opportunities in 2021.” But all that opportunity attracts educated, ambitious new Provo residents, who push housing prices here ever higher.
Premium buyers are paying in this market: 57.94%
Phoenix recently made the list of “The 10 Most Popular U.S. Cities to Move To.” When everybody wants to move to your town, it becomes more difficult to find a place to live. And all that competition only pushes prices even higher.
Premium buyers are paying in this market: 58.01%
Atlanta has long been known as the unofficial capital of the so-called “New South.” People come here seeking opportunity and push home prices higher in the process.
4. Las Vegas
Premium buyers are paying in this market: 61.48%
Las Vegas was one of the hardest-hit cities when the housing bubble burst more than a decade ago. Now, prices once more have risen to nosebleed heights. Residents are rolling the dice that history will not repeat.
3. Ogden, Utah
Premium buyers are paying in this market: 64.73%
Ogden is the third and final Utah city to make this list. It has been among the hottest housing markets in the U.S. throughout the pandemic.
2. Austin, Texas
Premium buyers are paying in this market: 67.70%
As New York City, San Francisco and other big cities appear to be losing their grip on the hearts and minds of Americans, other cities are stepping to the fore. Austin was one of the “The 10 Most Popular U.S. Cities to Move To” during 2021 — and one of four Texas cities to make that list.
In the process, housing in Austin has become overvalued by nearly 70%.
1. Boise City, Idaho
Premium buyers are paying in this market: 72.64%
Finally, no state in America is gaining popularity faster than Idaho. The state’s population grew by 3.4% last year, placing it No. 1 in the country in terms of gaining new residents. But all those newbies have put pressure on the supply of housing, which is now overvalued by more than 70%.
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