Editor's Note: This story originally appeared on Trace One.
High grocery prices have been a defining economic story in recent years, driven by a combination of factors including pandemic-related supply chain breakdowns and labor shortages.
However, an increasingly critical driver of food price inflation has been the impact of natural disasters — such as droughts, floods, and hurricanes — on the nation’s agricultural output.
In April 2025, a devastating weather system massively flooded corn, rice, soybean, and wheat crops in eastern Arkansas, affecting 31% of agricultural acreage in the region and inflicting an estimated $99 million worth of damage.
Similarly, the agricultural industry in Florida was devastated by a series of historic freezes during the 2025-2026 winter season. Prolonged subfreezing temperatures across several counties caused more than $3.1 billion in agricultural losses to key commodities like sugarcane, citrus, and strawberries, prompting the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) to issue a federal disaster declaration to help producers recover.
The increased frequency of natural hazards has created a challenging environment for farmers. However, the effects of climate- and weather-related disasters are not uniform, varying greatly depending on location.
To pinpoint where these events are having the greatest impact on farmers and the nation’s food supply, researchers at Trace One conducted an in-depth analysis of the latest data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) and the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). Find out more in the methodology section at the end.
Here are the states where natural disasters affect American farmers the most.
15. South Dakota
- Total expected annual loss: $82,368,728
- Expected annual loss per farm: $2,921
- Expected annual loss rate: 0.7%
- Total farms: 28,200
- Total agriculture value: $13,179,486,615
- Worst natural hazard for agriculture: Drought
14. Louisiana
- Total expected annual loss: $85,699,801
- Expected annual loss per farm: $3,527
- Expected annual loss rate: 2.2%
- Total farms: 24,300
- Total agriculture value: $4,301,518,770
- Worst natural hazard for agriculture: Drought
13. Minnesota
- Total expected annual loss: $94,745,716
- Expected annual loss per farm: $1,480
- Expected annual loss rate: 0.4%
- Total farms: 64,000
- Total agriculture value: $24,938,133,535
- Worst natural hazard for agriculture: Drought
12. Virginia
- Total expected annual loss: $111,815,337
- Expected annual loss per farm: $2,897
- Expected annual loss rate: 2.3%
- Total farms: 38,600
- Total agriculture value: $5,369,105,375
- Worst natural hazard for agriculture: Drought
11. Missouri
- Total expected annual loss: $116,168,556
- Expected annual loss per farm: $1,359
- Expected annual loss rate: 0.9%
- Total farms: 85,500
- Total agriculture value: $14,270,186,853
- Worst natural hazard for agriculture: Drought
10. Illinois
- Total expected annual loss: $128,535,491
- Expected annual loss per farm: $1,847
- Expected annual loss rate: 0.6%
- Total farms: 69,600
- Total agriculture value: $23,059,971,061
- Worst natural hazard for agriculture: Drought
9. Georgia
- Total expected annual loss: $140,194,565
- Expected annual loss per farm: $3,689
- Expected annual loss rate: 1.2%
- Total farms: 38,000
- Total agriculture value: $12,978,311,921
- Worst natural hazard for agriculture: Drought
8. Oklahoma
- Total expected annual loss: $143,685,257
- Expected annual loss per farm: $2,061
- Expected annual loss rate: 1.6%
- Total farms: 69,700
- Total agriculture value: $10,120,854,420
- Worst natural hazard for agriculture: Drought
7. North Carolina
- Total expected annual loss: $195,901,677
- Expected annual loss per farm: $4,743
- Expected annual loss rate: 1.3%
- Total farms: 41,300
- Total agriculture value: $17,489,162,853
- Worst natural hazard for agriculture: Hurricane
6. Kansas
- Total expected annual loss: $217,136,127
- Expected annual loss per farm: $3,962
- Expected annual loss rate: 1.0%
- Total farms: 54,800
- Total agriculture value: $25,463,306,469
- Worst natural hazard for agriculture: Drought
5. Florida
- Total expected annual loss: $293,720,476
- Expected annual loss per farm: $6,675
- Expected annual loss rate: 3.3%
- Total farms: 44,000
- Total agriculture value: $9,974,216,343
- Worst natural hazard for agriculture: Hurricane
4. Nebraska
- Total expected annual loss: $351,389,327
- Expected annual loss per farm: $7,968
- Expected annual loss rate: 1.3%
- Total farms: 44,100
- Total agriculture value: $29,802,179,666
- Worst natural hazard for agriculture: Hail
3. Iowa
- Total expected annual loss: $373,331,839
- Expected annual loss per farm: $4,331
- Expected annual loss rate: 1.1%
- Total farms: 86,200
- Total agriculture value: $39,255,425,495
- Worst natural hazard for agriculture: Drought
2. Texas
- Total expected annual loss: $627,268,245
- Expected annual loss per farm: $2,739
- Expected annual loss rate: 2.1%
- Total farms: 229,000
- Total agriculture value: $33,788,716,611
- Worst natural hazard for agriculture: Drought
1. California
- Total expected annual loss: $1,150,237,752
- Expected annual loss per farm: $18,522
- Expected annual loss rate: 2.1%
- Total farms: 62,100
- Total agriculture value: $61,214,473,111
- Worst natural hazard for agriculture: Drought
Methodology
The data used in this study is from FEMA’s National Risk Index and the USDA’s Census of Agriculture.
To identify locations where natural hazards have the greatest impact on the nation’s food supply, researchers at Trace One analyzed and ranked locations based on their average annual economic loss (expected annual loss) in 2026 dollars within the agricultural sector.
This metric accounts for damages caused by natural hazards such as cold waves, hail, heat waves, hurricanes, riverine flooding, strong winds, tornadoes, wildfires, and winter weather events, using data collected since 1996.
Total farm data was derived using 2022 county data and 2025 state data, the latest available data provided from the USDA. In the event of a tie, locations with greater expected annual losses per farm were ranked higher.
The analysis also incorporated the expected annual loss rate, calculated as the expected annual loss divided by the total annual value of the agricultural sector for each location. Additionally, researchers identified the worst natural hazard for agriculture in each location, which is the hazard contributing the largest share of the expected annual loss.
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