Editor's Note: This story originally appeared on U.S. Money Reserve.
Throughout history, gold has held allure as a precious resource. And in the modern economy, one of gold’s most important roles may be as a safe-haven asset during times of economic uncertainty.
Trends in the price of gold demonstrate the asset’s growing appeal. Relative to the performance of the Dow Jones Industrial Average — a common benchmark for gold investors — gold has exhibited stability.
The market now finds itself in a longer-lasting gold run than any since the U.S. fully abandoned the gold standard in August 1971. For the purposes of this analysis, a gold run is defined as a period of at least six months of spot price growth without a 30% decline.
While exceptional in duration, the current gold run is not the top in terms of price growth.
Following is a breakdown of the top gold price runs since August 1971, when the U.S. monetary system was removed from the gold standard.
The analysis was conducted by U.S. Money Reserve — a leading distributor of government-issued gold, silver, platinum, and palladium — using the spot price of an ounce of gold.
15. Gold price run of August 1999 to May 2002
- Percentage change in gold spot price: +28.7%
- Total change in gold spot price: +$72.80/oz.
- Percentage change in Dow Jones Industrial Average: -10.5%
- Number of months: 33
- Fed funds rate range: 5.07%-1.75%
14. Gold price run of November 2015 to July 2016
- Percentage change in gold spot price: +29.1%
- Total change in gold spot price: +$307.99/oz.
- Percentage change in Dow Jones Industrial Average: +2.0%
- Number of months: 7
- Fed funds rate range: 0.12%-0.39%
13. Gold price run of November 1986 to December 1987
- Percentage change in gold spot price: +29.8%
- Total change in gold spot price: +$113.89/oz.
- Percentage change in Dow Jones Industrial Average: -1.4%
- Number of months: 12
- Fed funds rate range: 6.04%-6.77%
12. Gold price run of March 2003 to January 2004
- Percentage change in gold spot price: +31.0%
- Total change in gold spot price: +$100.90/oz.
- Percentage change in Dow Jones Industrial Average: +26.4%
- Number of months: 9
- Fed funds rate range: 1.25%-1.00%
11. Gold price run of April 2019 to March 2020
- Percentage change in gold spot price: +31.3%
- Total change in gold spot price: +$398.84/oz.
- Percentage change in Dow Jones Industrial Average: -2.6%
- Number of months: 10
- Fed funds rate range: 2.42%-0.65%
10. Gold price run of February 1986 to September 1986
- Percentage change in gold spot price: +31.8%
- Total change in gold spot price: +$105.30/oz.
- Percentage change in Dow Jones Industrial Average: +6.6%
- Number of months: 7
- Fed funds rate range: 7.86%-5.89%
9. Gold price run of June 2007 to March 2008
- Percentage change in gold spot price: +53.1%
- Total change in gold spot price: +$344.65/oz.
- Percentage change in Dow Jones Industrial Average: -11.0%
- Number of months: 9
- Fed funds rate range: 5.25%-2.61%
8. Gold price run of March 2020 to July 2024
- Percentage change in gold spot price: +59.1%
- Total change in gold spot price: +$885.33/oz.
- Percentage change in Dow Jones Industrial Average: +137.0%
- Number of months: 52
- Fed funds rate range: 0.65%-5.33%
7. Gold price run of August 2005 to May 2006
- Percentage change in gold spot price: +63.8%
- Total change in gold spot price: +$278.50/oz.
- Percentage change in Dow Jones Industrial Average: +7.8%
- Number of months: 8
- Fed funds rate range: 3.50%-4.94%
6. Gold price run of June 1982 to February 1983
- Percentage change in gold spot price: +65.1%
- Total change in gold spot price: +$199.00/oz.
- Percentage change in Dow Jones Industrial Average: +35.3%
- Number of months: 7
- Fed funds rate range: 14.15%-8.51%
5. Gold price run of November 1973 to December 1974
- Percentage change in gold spot price: +115.7%
- Total change in gold spot price: +$104.75/oz.
- Percentage change in Dow Jones Industrial Average: -32.4%
- Number of months: 13
- Fed funds rate range: 10.03%-8.53%
4. Gold price run of August 1976 to October 1978
- Percentage change in gold spot price: +125.3%
- Total change in gold spot price: +$130.55/oz.
- Percentage change in Dow Jones Industrial Average: -16.4%
- Number of months: 26
- Fed funds rate range: 5.29%-8.96%
3. Gold price run of October 2008 to August 2011
- Percentage change in gold spot price: +159.9%
- Total change in gold spot price: +$1,159.15/oz.
- Percentage change in Dow Jones Industrial Average: +20.5%
- Number of months: 34
- Fed funds rate range: 0.97%-0.10%
2. Gold price run of August 1971 to July 1973
- Percentage change in gold spot price: +205.4%
- Total change in gold spot price: +$85.05/oz.
- Percentage change in Dow Jones Industrial Average: -4.2%
- Number of months: 22
- Fed funds rate range: 5.57%-10.40%
1. Gold price run of November 1978 to January 1980
- Percentage change in gold spot price: +329.0%
- Total change in gold spot price: +$640.35/oz.
- Percentage change in Dow Jones Industrial Average: +6.9%
- Number of months: 13
- Fed funds rate range: 9.76%-13.82%
Methodology
To determine gold’s largest price runs since the end of the gold standard, researchers at U.S. Money Reserve analyzed the latest gold spot price data, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, and the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System’s Selected Interest Rates (Daily) – H.15.
Gold price runs were defined as periods of price increases exceeding six months. The runs were measured from the point when the gold spot price closed at a local low to the peak price reached during that period.
A gold price run was considered to have ended after the spot price declined by more than 30% of the total price gain achieved during that specific run.
The researchers also calculated the total change in gold spot price, the percentage change in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, and the effective federal funds rate range during the same period.
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