A nonpartisan senior advocacy group is predicting a higher 2027 Social Security Cost-of-Living Adjustment (COLA) in its latest outlook for the federal benefits program, but adds that inflation continues making life difficult for seniors.
The Senior Citizens League, on May 12, released its monthly COLA forecast for 2027, saying data now show a 3.9% increase is likely, which would be 1.1 percentage points higher than the increase in 2026.
The COLA is an annual adjustment to Social Security payments that goes into effect in January each year to counteract inflation for beneficiaries — people who are retired, disabled workers or survivors.
From April 2025 to April 2026, inflation rose to 3.8%, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Price Index April 2026 report.
“With inflation rising back toward the highs of the early 2020s, many seniors say the cost of essentials continues to outpace their monthly budgets,” TSCL said in its forecast. “Seniors have already started cutting back on essential health care services to make ends meet.”
In the past year, the main drivers of inflation were housing and transportation costs such as fuel, according to the nonpartisan data group, USA Facts.
“TSCL’s current model already projects a higher COLA in 2027 than the 2.8% issued in 2026. However, fast-rising oil prices could have downstream effects on the economy and push inflation even higher,” the TSCL said. “The St. Louis Federal Reserve has found that higher oil prices ‘have historically coincided with both food prices and broader consumer inflation.’ In other words, when gas prices go up, other things tend to follow, which will put even more pressure on seniors already struggling to get by.”
The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ consumer price index revealed prices rose 0.6% from March to April and were up 3.8% from a year ago. Those readings came in above forecasters’ expectations and mark inflation’s highest level in nearly three years.
A 5.4% rise in gas prices over the month again drove the increase, following a record 21.2% spike in March. Over the year, gas prices are up 28.4%.
What Is the 2027 COLA Forecast Right Now?
The 2027 COLA forecast stands at 3.9% as inflation rises, according to The Senior Citizens League’s May 12 update. If that goes into effect, the average Social Security check for retired workers would increase by $81.17.
“With inflation rising back toward the highs of the early 2020s, many seniors say the cost of essentials continues to outpace their monthly budgets. For example, a retiree receiving a $2,000 monthly Social Security benefit would see an increase of about $80 per month with a 3.9 percent COLA. However, the supermajority of retirees agree that rising costs for things like Medicare premiums, housing costs, utilities and grocery prices consume that gain and then some,” the TSCL said.
In April, the TSCL had forecast the 2027 COLA to be 2.8%.
The TSCL releases a COLA prediction each month based on the Consumer Price Index, Federal Reserve interest rate and the National Unemployment rate from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
When Will the Official COLA Be Announced for 2027?
The official COLA increase for 2027 will be announced in October 2026, based on third-quarter inflation data.
How Are COLA Forecasts Calculated?
According to the Social Security Administration, the COLA is based on increases in the Consumer Price Index for urban wage earners and clerical workers (CPI-W) calculated monthly by the U.S. BLS — CPI-W is the average change over time in the prices paid by urban wage earners and clerical workers for a market basket of consumer goods and services, per the BLS.
What Were the Big Social Security Changes in 2026?
At the beginning of 2026, recipients received a 2.8% COLA for Social Security and Supplemental Security Income (SSI) payments, according to the SSA’s COLA Fact Sheet and the American Association of Retired Persons, increasing payments about $56 per month.
Reporting by Sarah Moore, USA TODAY NETWORK / Lansing State Journal via Reuters Connect
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