Consumer confidence usually rises as the holidays draw near. The season brings familiar rhythms, from planning gatherings to navigating long shopping lists.
This year, that pattern has changed. According to The Conference Board, the Consumer Confidence Index fell from 95.5 in October to 88.7 in November.
The decline comes at a time when many households are already thinking about travel costs, gift budgets, and the broader economic climate.
A shift in the national mood
Confidence levels move for many reasons, but they do not typically fall this far heading into the busiest retail period of the year. The Present Situation Index slipped to 126.9, suggesting people feel less confident about business and job conditions than they did just a month ago. The Expectations Index dropped to 63.2, its lowest level since early in the year. Readings below 80 often point to rising anxiety about the future.
Consumers may not be pulling back entirely, but they appear more alert to risks, more sensitive to prices, and more cautious about the months ahead. Chief Economist Dana M. Peterson noted that consumers were “less sanguine about current business and labor market conditions” in November.
Her assessment reflects what many households already feel: the sense that something in the background has shifted, even if day-to-day life looks much the same.
What is driving the unease?
The tension between steady spending and weakening confidence can be hard to interpret, but it often shows up in the details of how people make decisions. Fewer respondents expect their incomes to rise in the coming months. More expect their incomes to fall. Job optimism has softened, and the share of consumers who anticipate better conditions ahead has narrowed.
None of these points to immediate economic trouble. Instead, it suggests that people are more aware of uncertainty and are weighing it more heavily in their choices. The holiday season magnifies that effect. Higher travel costs, shifting work expectations, the push for promotions and sales, and the emotional load of December can make uncertainty feel sharper.
Retailers are likely watching these numbers closely. When confidence drops, stores often adjust their approach, offering stronger promotions or encouraging earlier sales. Consumers may see more targeted deals and more aggressive reminders as companies try to keep seasonal revenue on track.
Staying festive when the financial forecast is chilly
When economic signals are mixed, holiday spending may become more cautious. You may want to slow down, think twice, and weigh what matters, rather than running on tradition alone.
- Set a firm spending cap. A clear limit prevents small decisions from turning into a big January headache.
- Prioritize essentials first. Cover the bills, savings goals, and commitments you cannot delay, then decide how much holiday spending fits comfortably on top.
- Shop with a list. Decide what you plan to buy before you look at promotions. Let sales support your list, not rewrite it.
- Look for value, not volume. A smaller number of thoughtful purchases often beats a long list that strains your budget.
- Take advantage of discounts. For example, you can slash expenses on dining, travel, eyeglasses, prescriptions and more with AARP — Just $15/year with auto-renewal. Join now and save hundreds.
- Spread out the cost. If travel or large expenses are unavoidable, plan them alongside your regular budget rather than treating them as extras.
- Protect your emergency fund. Start by opening a better bank account. SoFi offers a combination checking-and-savings account, and if you set up direct deposit, you can earn a competitive APY on your savings. (Can change without notice.) New members who set up direct deposit can also get a cash bonus. That’s money in your pocket.
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This season does not require stepping back from celebrations. Thoughtful choices can protect your finances while leaving plenty of room for the moments that matter. A steady, intentional approach ensures the holidays remain joyful without setting up unwanted surprises in the new year.
Sources
The Conference Board (November 25, 2025 release); The Conference Board (October 28, 2025)
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