When a wave of Californians move to your state, it’s reasonable to expect voter registration numbers to shift toward the Democratic Party. After all, the Golden State is famous for tilting in a decidedly progressive direction.
But despite evidence that many California residents have picked up stakes and moved to Arizona or Nevada in recent years, those two political swing states have seen the number of registered Democrats decline since the last presidential election in 2020, according to an analysis by Redfin.
The trend may spell trouble for the Democratic Party this fall, although the latest polling shows a tight race in each state.
Since 2020, Arizona has lost a whopping 186,000 registered Democrats. In Nevada, losses of registered Democrats since then have hit 54,000.
Arizona has lost registered Republicans as well, but by a more modest 74,000. Nevada has seen an increase in registered Republicans, although the total is less than 1,000.
In a summary of the analysis, Redfin senior economist Elijah de la Campa notes that the COVID-19 pandemic “supercharged” a trend that has put a new face on the national housing market:
“People have been leaving expensive, coastal, liberal places like New York and California for affordable, inland, politically moderate places like Arizona and Nevada. While a lot of people were simply moving to where they could afford a home, some sought a place where they fit in better politically.”
De la Campa notes that while such “self-sorting” might be plausibly viewed as the source of the changing voter registration trends, “it’s more likely that a lot of Arizonans and Nevadans have been feeling very disillusioned by their political choices.”
It is possible that, once again, a relatively small number of votes will decide whether Arizona and Nevada collectively vote Republican or Democrat during the 2024 presidential election in November. As Redfin points out, in 2020, President Joe Biden — a Democrat who won the election — took Arizona by just about 10,000 votes and Nevada by about 34,000 votes.
The Democratic ticket’s chief opponent in 2020 — former President Donald Trump — is once again running as this year’s Republican nominee.
Biden was running for re-election until he recently dropped out of the race over concerns about his age and other issues. Kamala Harris accepted the nomination of her party at the Democratic National Convention in mid-August.
Most polls show a close race between Trump and Harris, and it is likely that Arizona and Nevada will play a pivotal role in determining which of the candidates ends up in the White House.
Redfin says both Arizona and Nevada have gained large numbers of registered independents, and how that segment of the electorate votes often swings elections to one party or the other.
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