After soaring 30% so far in 2025 on top of last year’s 25% surge, gold has investors wondering if they have already missed the boat. Not quite, according to one of the world’s most seasoned gold strategists.
George Milling-Stanley — a five-decade gold analyst and architect of the first gold-backed ETF — told the Money Life with Chuck Jaffe podcast in May that gold could hit $3,900 an ounce by year’s end. He called it a best-case scenario, not a guarantee, but the projection shows strong conviction from someone known for measured forecasts.
At the same time, he believes gold has already established a higher price floor. “We’ve established a new floor in the gold price, somewhere above $3,000 an ounce,” he said during that same interview. Just last year, that floor was closer to $2,000.
His bullish outlook stems from a perfect storm of uncertainty: tariff turmoil rattling global markets, confusion about interest rate direction, and geopolitical tensions showing no signs of easing. It is exactly the kind of environment where gold traditionally performs best.
Why gold keeps climbing
Today’s rally looks nothing like the 1970s, when gold rose sharply alongside runaway inflation. In earlier commentary, Milling-Stanley explained that gold acts as a true inflation hedge only during sustained periods of price increases above 5% lasting at least two years. He noted that such conditions have not existed in decades.
Instead, uncertainty is driving gold higher. In a March interview with Kitco News, he said, “Gold thrives on uncertainty,” pointing to trade policy, interest rate confusion, and global instability as primary catalysts.
He told Chuck Jaffe that his team has revised their 2025 gold forecast multiple times since December, mainly in response to shifting economic signals and geopolitical risks. “When faced with uncertainty, I’ve always turned to gold in the past, and I think it’s served me well,” he said.
What to consider if you own or are eyeing gold
For those already holding gold, taking profits may be tempting. The three-year annualized return on SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) recently hit 21.4%, significantly outperforming gold’s long-term average of just under 8% since 1971.
Still, Milling-Stanley sees no reason to rush out. He told the podcast that it would not be surprising if gold consolidates between $3,100 and $3,500, which he views as a sign of stability, not weakness. The metal could hold steady while other assets struggle during market stress.
For new investors, buying now might still be a reasonable move. But Milling-Stanley cautions against thinking of gold purely in terms of short-term profits.
Instead, he emphasizes its value during market disruptions. He pointed to several past events when equities tumbled and gold held strong, including Black Monday in 1987, the dot-com bubble burst, the global financial crisis, and the onset of the pandemic in 2020.
Where gold fits in an investment strategy
Milling-Stanley supports a gold allocation but does not recommend going all in. Most financial advisors view precious metals as portfolio insurance rather than a core holding, often suggesting a modest percentage of total assets.
One key advantage is gold’s lack of correlation with stocks and bonds, making it one of the few assets that can truly diversify a portfolio. With the U.S. dollar down nearly 9% so far in 2025 — its steepest early-year drop in decades — and showing weakness following recent tariff announcements, gold’s appeal as a hedge against currency risk is growing once again.
Different ways to invest
Not all gold investments behave similarly, and Milling-Stanley has clear preferences. He favors physical gold exposure through ETFs like GLD, which track the price of gold closely and are easy to buy and sell through regular brokerage accounts.
He is less enthusiastic about gold mining stocks, which tend to be more volatile and have not kept pace with the metal’s recent gains. Physical coins and bars may appeal to some investors but come with challenges like storage, insurance, and wide bid-ask spreads.
Gold futures offer another route but require experience with leverage and margin management, making them less suitable for the average investor.
For most people, gold ETFs offer the simplest way to get exposure without the risks and logistics of physical gold or the unpredictability of mining shares.
What could derail the rally?
Even the most optimistic strategists know the risks. Several factors could stop gold from reaching $3,900 per ounce.
A major de-escalation in global tensions could reduce the demand for gold as a safe haven.
If the Federal Reserve successfully controls inflation and interest rates become more predictable, investors may shift away from gold in favor of higher-yielding assets.
The biggest risk could be a sharp rebound in the U.S. dollar. Although the dollar has weakened this year, a reversal, where the dollar regains strength, could drive gold prices lower, since gold typically becomes less attractive when the dollar rises.
Milling-Stanley said he would not be surprised if gold simply consolidates at current price levels. That may frustrate investors chasing big gains, but it is not the same as a crash.
What it means for your strategy
The case for gold right now is about more than chasing last year’s gains. With a veteran strategist projecting further potential and economic uncertainty showing no signs of fading, the metal’s long-standing role as protection against volatility remains as relevant as ever.
If you are concerned about tariffs, interest rate shifts, or geopolitical risks, a modest allocation to gold could offer peace of mind.
But remember, even the best forecasts are still just forecasts. Gold works best as a safeguard, not a shortcut to riches. Whether it climbs higher or just holds its ground, its most important job is helping preserve wealth when other investments are under pressure.
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