I’m sitting on more than 4 million American Express Membership Rewards points.
That’s enough for first-class flights around the world several times over. It’s also a financial liability that’s bleeding value as you read this — and I’m not the only one bleeding.
If you’ve got a stash of credit card points or airline miles, the rules are changing. The card issuers, airlines and hotel chains figured out something most cardholders haven’t.
Those points sitting in your account aren’t an asset. They’re a debt on their balance sheet. They want them gone.
And they’ve got a quiet, perfectly legal way to make that happen. It’s called devaluation. In 2026, it’s accelerating.
What just happened to your points
Amex slashed the transfer ratio from Membership Rewards to Cathay Pacific Asia Miles from 1:1 to 5:4 on March 1, 2026. Translation: You now need 25% more Amex points to book the same flight.
That follows an identical hit to Emirates Skywards last fall. Two major airlines down. More are almost certainly coming.
The hotel side is uglier. World of Hyatt — long the gold standard for predictable point values — is rolling out a new five-tier award chart in May 2026. Top-tier nights at the best properties will cost up to 67% more points, according to NerdWallet’s analysis.
Citi is also dropping its transfer rate to Choice Privileges by 25% and to Preferred Hotels by 50% as of April 19.
Hilton and Marriott already moved to dynamic pricing, which means the “price” of a free night can move whenever they feel like it. CNBC has a name for what’s happening: shrinkflation, the same trick grocery brands use when they sell you a smaller cereal box for the same price. They’re not wrong.
Why nobody’s stopping them
Loyalty programs are massive businesses. According to data cited by CNBC, there are trillions worth of unspent loyalty rewards sitting on corporate balance sheets globally. Every one of those points is a liability on someone’s books.
The cheaper a point gets, the smaller that liability. So airlines and hotels keep raising the cost of “free” stuff, and card issuers keep cutting transfer ratios to match.
You won’t get a press release. You’ll get a footnote on your statement — if you get anything at all.
Here’s what I’m doing about it, and what you should be doing too.
1. Stop hoarding, start spending
My parents grew up in the Great Depression and taught me to be as frugal as they were (as you can tell by how I named my business and this site). But one unfortunate side effect of all that frugality is that it can lead to hoarding.
Give me a gift card and it’ll probably still be in my desk drawer a year later. I’ve saved more money than I’m likely to spend, and I’ve been saving all these reward points for “someday.”
Nothing wrong with saving for someday, but not when it comes to reward points.
Points aren’t savings. They earn no interest. They lose value almost every year. Treat them like cash that’s slowly burning — because that’s exactly what they are.
If you’ve got a trip you can take in the next 12 months, book it now.
2. Book before the devaluation, not after
When a program announces a transfer or award chart change, you usually get 30 to 60 days of warning. That window is gold.
If you’ve got Amex or other points and a trip on your wish list, the math was better last week than it is today. Watch your inbox and your statements. The moment you see a “Changes to your program” message, do the math on locking in awards at the old rate.
3. Diversify across programs
If all your points live in one currency, one announcement can wreck your travel plans.
Spread your spending across two flexible programs — Chase Ultimate Rewards and Amex Membership Rewards work well together. Or add Capital One Miles and Citi ThankYou Points to the mix.
When one program devalues a partner, you’ve still got options. The same logic applies whether you’re picking a credit card with surprising perks or building a long-term rewards strategy.
4. Know what your points are actually worth — today
Most people have no clue what their points are worth right now. NerdWallet and The Points Guy publish updated valuations every month. Check them.
If you’re getting less than 1.5 cents per point on a redemption, you’ll usually do better paying with cash and earning cash back instead.
The marketing photos of lie-flat business class seats aren’t worth it if the math doesn’t work. And right now, the math is getting worse, not better.
5. Consider switching to cash back
Here’s the dirty secret of the points game: For most Americans, plain old cash back wins.
A flat 2% cash-back card with no annual fee can quietly outperform a $695 premium travel card if you’re not booking international business class every year.
I love the points game. But if you’re not the type who’ll chase sweet spots, time transfers perfectly, and book trips six months out, cash back is almost certainly the smarter play.
It’s boring, predictable and completely immune to devaluation. If you’re weighing the trade-off, this comparison of cash back versus free flights is worth a read.
The bottom line
I’ve got 4 million Amex points, and I’m now booking trips faster than I’m earning them. Because the people running these programs aren’t your friends.
They’re running a business. And that business depends on you not noticing how quickly your “free” trip is getting more expensive.
Use them or lose them. That’s not a metaphor anymore.
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