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Days before the midterm elections, President Donald Trump is making voters a cash offer.
“If Republicans win the House of Representatives and the Senate in the 2026 Midterm Elections, I’m going to give all Adult Citizens in the United States of America, $5,000,” Trump posted on Truth Social on Oct. 3, Fortune reported (1).
He’s kept repeating it.
In an Oct. 12 video, he said that if Republicans win, “you will each have $5,000 in your pocket,” Newsweek reported (2). At an Oct. 19 rally in Kansas, he said, “I am going to give all adult citizens in the United States of America $5,000,” according to FactCheck.org (3).
I’ve been a CPA since 1981, and $5,000 would be real money for a lot of retirees. So let’s take the offer seriously and look at what it would take to get from a campaign promise to your mailbox.
Voters are skeptical. In an Economist/YouGov poll taken Sept. 11-14, just 21% of registered voters said Trump definitely or probably would pay the dividend if Republicans keep Congress, Fortune reported (1).
Here are 5 things to know before you count on a check.
1. Don’t spend it before it’s law
A promise isn’t a payment. Until a check actually lands, plan your budget as if it won’t.
That matters most if you’re tempted to put holiday gifts, a car repair or a trip on a credit card now and pay it off “when the $5,000 comes.” If the money is late, smaller or never arrives, you’re paying credit card interest on a promise.
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2. The price tag is about $1.2 trillion
Paying $5,000 to more than 245 million adult citizens would cost about $1.2 trillion, according to FactCheck.org (3).
Kent Smetters, faculty director of the Penn Wharton Budget Model, put the cost at about $1.35 trillion for the full adult population, according to Newsweek (2).
3. Tariffs don’t come close to paying for it
Tariff revenue has increased, but it’s “still less than $200 billion a year,” FactCheck.org reported (3).
Marc Goldwein of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget put it bluntly: It “would take 6+ years of tariffs to fund one year of these checks,” according to FactCheck.org (3).
Based on those numbers, if the checks happen, most of the money would likely have to come from somewhere else, such as more federal borrowing.
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4. Congress, not the election, writes the check
Winning the House and Senate doesn’t send money by itself. The Constitution says, “No money shall be drawn from the treasury, but in consequence of appropriations made by law” (4).
Trump told CBS News on Sept. 10 that his administration didn’t believe congressional approval would be required: “I think they will do it if we needed it, but we think not,” Newsweek reported (2). Either way, nothing gets paid until the money is actually authorized and sent.
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5. A check this size could push prices up
Smetters estimated that sending the money could add 0.3 to 0.5 percentage points to inflation over the following four quarters, Newsweek reported (2).
For retirees on a fixed income, that’s the hidden cost. A one-time check is gone fast. Higher prices stick around.
My honest take
I’d love to tell you a $5,000 check is coming. Nobody can guarantee that yet. Under the Constitution, Congress controls the money.
Vote however you like on Tuesday. Just don’t let a campaign promise sneak into your budget. Plan with the money you have, and if a check ever shows up, treat it as a bonus.
The safest money is the money already in your account.
Sources: 1. Fortune; 2. Newsweek; 3. FactCheck.org; 4. Cornell Law School Legal Information Institute
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