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At an Oct. 2 rally in Mobile, Alabama, President Donald Trump said the war with Iran is “going to end very soon and probably right after the midterms.” Then came the promise: “as soon as it does end, oil prices will come tumbling down.” (1)
I hope he’s right. But I’ve been a CPA since 1981, and I’ve learned not to spend money I haven’t gotten yet. A price drop that hasn’t happened is in the same category.
Here’s where things stand. The national average for regular gas was $4.38 a gallon on Oct. 3, according to AAA. That’s down from $4.49 a week earlier, but up from $3.15 a year ago. (2)
The government’s own inflation numbers tell the same story. Through August, gasoline prices were up 27.4% over the previous 12 months, while overall inflation ran 3.4%. (3)
And the Energy Department’s statisticians do expect relief. Their September forecast has regular gas averaging $3.84 for 2026 as a whole and falling to $3.35 in 2027. (4)
So the direction Trump is promising isn’t crazy. The timing is the problem. Here are five ways to handle your budget until prices actually fall.
1. He may be right about the direction, but nobody controls the date
The Energy Information Administration expects Brent crude to average around $90 a barrel in the second half of this year, then gradually fall to an average of $74 in 2027. (4)
Notice what the agency gives as the reason: rising oil production and rebuilding inventories. It doesn’t pin the drop on an election date, and neither should you.
Forecasts can change. If you’re on a fixed income, plan for today’s price and treat any drop as a bonus.
2. Do the math on what gas is really costing you
Most of us have a vague sense that filling up hurts more. Put a number on it.
Here’s an illustration. Say you drive 12,000 miles a year in a car that gets 25 miles per gallon. That’s 480 gallons. At about $1.23 more per gallon than a year ago, that works out to roughly $590 more over a year of driving.
That’s real money, and it’s money you can claw some of back.
Gas prices swing, but you’re driving past cash back every week. Upside is a free app that pays you real cash — up to 25¢ a gallon — at stations you already use, including Shell, BP, and Exxon.
Claim an offer, pay with your usual card, and the cash back lands in the app. It stacks on top of your credit card rewards. Start earning on your next tank.
3. Don’t count on your Social Security raise to cover it
Social Security cost-of-living adjustments are based on the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers, comparing third-quarter averages year over year. The latest COLA, for 2026, was 2.8%. (5)
The September inflation numbers come out Oct. 14, and that’s the last piece of the third-quarter puzzle. (3)
Here’s the catch. The COLA reflects an average shopping basket. If you drive more than average, the raise may not keep up with what you’re paying at the pump. In the year through August, gas rose eight times faster than overall prices. (3)
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4. Find the gas money somewhere else in your budget
You can’t control oil prices. You can control the rest of your monthly bills, and the easiest savings are usually the ones you’ve stopped noticing.
Forgotten streaming services, free trials that never ended, bills that creep up every year — recurring charges are the easiest money leak to miss. Rocket Money connects securely to your accounts and puts every subscription on one screen — cancel the ones you don’t want in a few taps.
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5. Build a small fuel cushion instead of a bet
Here’s a simple habit. Take the extra you’re spending on gas compared with last year, roughly that $590 in my example, and set aside the same amount in savings over the next few months.
If prices fall the way the president and the forecasters expect, you’ve got a little windfall. If they don’t, the cushion keeps a fill-up from landing on a credit card.
What I wouldn’t do is make a big decision based on a price headline. Don’t buy a new car or sell investments because of what oil might do next month. Prices that “come tumbling down” can climb right back up.
My honest take
Trump may turn out to be right that oil prices will drop. The government’s own forecasters lean the same way.
But a promise about after the midterms doesn’t pay this month’s bills. Budget for the price on the sign, squeeze the rest of your spending, and let any relief be a pleasant surprise.
I’ve watched a lot of predictions come and go. The people who sleep well are the ones who never needed the prediction to come true.
Sources: 1. Fox News; 2. AAA; 3. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; 4. U.S. Energy Information Administration; 5. Social Security Administration
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