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Social Security’s top official just made a promise that sounds like music to every retiree: the program isn’t going anywhere.
“It’s 90 years old,” Social Security Commissioner Frank Bisignano said Oct. 12 on CNBC’s “Squawk Box,” adding that “it’ll be around for another 90 years,” according to Spectrum News. (1)
I’ve been a CPA since 1981 and writing about money for more than 35 years. So let me say something you might not expect: he’s right. Social Security will almost certainly be around in 90 years.
But that’s not the question that matters for your mailbox. The question is how big the check will be.
The government’s own trustees answered that in June. The trust fund that pays retirement benefits is projected to run dry in the fourth quarter of 2032, with 78% of benefits payable at that point. (2) Without legislation, the trustees say ongoing income would cover only that 78%. (3)
The average retired worker collected $2,074.53 a month in January 2026. (4) Here are five things the “90 years” headline leaves out — and what they mean for your check.
1. He’s right: Social Security won’t disappear
Let’s give the commissioner his due. Social Security doesn’t need a full trust fund to keep paying. Even after the reserves are gone, money keeps coming in — the trustees call it “continuing income” — and it keeps going out as benefits.
That’s why the trustees don’t project zero. Even if the retirement and disability funds were combined, which would take a change in the law, income would still cover about 83% of program cost when reserves run out in 2034. (3)
So anyone telling you Social Security will “go broke” and pay nothing is wrong. Don’t let that fear push you into claiming early.
2. The catch: the retirement fund runs short in 2032
Here’s what didn’t make the sound bite. The fund that pays retired workers, their families and survivors — the OASI trust fund — is projected to be depleted in the fourth quarter of 2032. (2)(6)
That’s about six years from now. If you’re 60 today, you’d be around 66. If you’re already retired, it lands right in the middle of your plan.
The trustees put it plainly: “Legislative action will be needed to prevent OASI reserve depletion.” (3)
3. What 78% looks like in real dollars
Percentages are easy to shrug off. Dollars aren’t.
Apply a 22% cut to the January 2026 average retirement check of $2,074.53 and, in today’s dollars, you lose about $456 a month — roughly $5,477 a year. (4) The check would drop to about $1,618.
If you and a spouse both collect checks that size, double it. That’s the kind of hole that turns a comfortable budget into a tight one.
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4. Even the commissioner says Washington has to fix it
Bisignano didn’t claim his agency can close the gap on its own. “Ultimately it will be the White House and Congress and the (Social Security trust fund) trustees” who need to figure it out, he said. (1)
That’s accurate. The trustees say acting “sooner rather than later” would let more generations share the cost of the fix. And the gap keeps widening: by 2100, they project continuing income will cover only about 65% of program cost. (3)
My read: Congress has every incentive to fix this before 2032, because no politician wants to explain a 22% cut to the more than 53 million retired workers collecting benefits. (4) But “they’ll probably fix it” isn’t a plan. It’s a hope.
5. Plan for the check you can count on
You can’t control Congress. You can control your own plan. Here’s how I’d handle it.
Run your retirement budget twice: once with your full projected benefit, and once at 78% of it starting in 2032. If the second version still works, sleep well. If it doesn’t, you’ve got time to adjust.
And if you haven’t claimed yet, waiting can help.
For anyone born in 1943 or later, Social Security adds 8% a year for each year you delay past full retirement age, and the increase stops at 70. (5) A bigger starting check also means a bigger cushion if a cut ever comes.
If you have significant savings and want someone to stress-test the numbers with you, a fiduciary advisor can run both scenarios.
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My honest take
The commissioner isn’t wrong. He’s just answering the less important question.
The real question isn’t whether Social Security vanishes. It’s whether the check will cover the electric bill in 2033. On that, the trustees’ own numbers say: not fully, unless Congress acts.
So take the good news for what it is, and plan as if the fix comes late. If Washington solves it on time, you’ll have a little extra. If it doesn’t, you’ll be the one neighbor who isn’t surprised.
Sources: 1. Spectrum News; 2. Social Security Administration; 3. 2026 Social Security Trustees Report; 4. Social Security Administration (Monthly Statistical Snapshot); 5. Social Security Administration (Delayed Retirement Credits); 6. 2026 Social Security Trustees Report (Introduction)
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