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“Mississippi taxpayers saw average refunds of $4,018 in 2026 — among the highest in the nation.”
That’s from an Oct. 26 White House release issued as President Donald Trump returned to Mississippi. It lists the figure under the heading “Delivering Tax Relief for Hardworking Mississippians” (1). For that state figure, the White House cites an outside website, Upgraded Points (1).
I’ve been a CPA since 1981, and the national numbers back up the bigger point. Through April 17, the average refund was $3,275, up 11.3% from $2,942 at the same point a year earlier, according to the IRS (2).
But if you’re counting on another fat refund next spring, slow down. A big reason this year’s checks were so large is the same reason next year’s may not be.
When the tax law passed, the IRS said plainly: “Federal income tax withholding tables will not be updated for these provisions for TY 2025” (3). So paychecks kept withholding as if the new tax breaks didn’t exist, and the savings piled up until people filed.
Trump’s own Treasury secretary saw it coming. In December, Scott Bessent predicted “a gigantic refund year,” explaining it was “because working Americans did not change their withholdings,” according to Fox Business (4).
For 2026, that changed. Here’s what it means for your refund, and 4 moves to make before Dec. 31.
Why your next refund may be smaller
The IRS says its 2026 withholding tables “have been updated for changes made by P.L. 119-21,” the law better known as the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (5).
The Tax Foundation explained the idea in January: withholding tables adjust “so that taxpayers receive the tax cuts through higher take-home pay going forward” (6).
In other words, for a lot of workers, more of the tax cut is showing up a little at a time in each paycheck this year instead of as one lump sum next spring.
My read: if your income and deductions look about the same as last year, don’t be surprised if your refund next spring is smaller. That isn’t a tax increase. You simply got some of the money earlier.
Here’s what I’d do now.
1. Don’t spend a refund you haven’t seen
Here’s a common mistake: People get one big check, then plan the next year’s vacation or holiday spending around getting another one.
If this year’s refund paid for something you’ll want again next year, start setting aside money for it from your regular budget now. And find out where your money is already going.
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2. Run the IRS withholding check before year-end
The IRS has a free Tax Withholding Estimator that it says helps “workers and retirees” estimate how much to withhold (7). The agency says it “reflects the changes to credits and deductions under the One, Big, Beautiful Bill” (7).
The IRS pitches it as a way to “Prevent owing money and potential penalties at tax time” (7). With two months left in the year, there’s still time to change your withholding if it’s off.
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3. Retirees: check your pension withholding too
This isn’t just about paychecks. The IRS says the 2026 Form W-4P “has been updated for 2026 to account for new federal income tax deductions” under the same law (5). That’s the form you use to set federal withholding on regular pension or annuity payments.
If you’ve had the same withholding on your pension for years, it’s worth a fresh look. Too little and you could owe in April. Too much and you’re making the government an interest-free loan.
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4. Decide what you actually want: a refund or a bigger check
The IRS itself suggests you can “Adjust withholding to increase take-home pay instead of waiting for a refund” (7).
Some people like a refund as a forced savings plan, and I won’t argue with what works for you. Just make it a choice, not a surprise.
My honest take
The White House is right that refunds were big this year. The IRS numbers show it.
But a refund isn’t a gift. It’s your own money coming back to you, without interest. This year it was bigger partly because withholding didn’t keep up with the new law.
Next spring, the tax cut doesn’t disappear. A lot of it may simply have arrived in your paychecks already. Plan for that now, and a smaller check in April won’t feel like bad news.
Sources: 1. The White House; 2. IRS; 3. IRS; 4. Fox Business; 5. IRS; 6. Tax Foundation; 7. IRS
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