Why This Year’s Summer Sales Might Be a Let-Down

The consumer price index rose to 2.4% year-over-year in May, a slight increase from April’s 2.3%, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Monthly inflation peaked at just 0.1%, suggesting that price growth remains relatively stable. CNBC issued a breakdown of the May data.

Core categories such as used cars and apparel saw price declines, offering temporary relief to families despite looming economic concerns.

But experts caution that this calm might not last. President Trump’s new tariff policies have added pressure to key import categories, and some analysts believe consumers will begin to see price increases later this summer, just as they start looking for seasonal deals.

Why prices could rise soon

So far, many businesses have cushioned the impact of tariffs by relying on existing inventory stockpiled before the latest duties took effect. But that inventory is finite.

As retailers start replenishing their supply at higher costs, prices on shelves could begin to reflect those increases.

While May’s data didn’t show widespread inflation, specific product categories could feel the heat.

Economists point to electronics, clothing, and globally sourced home goods as most vulnerable to rising costs.

What could get more expensive?

• Electronics and tech gadgets often rely on overseas supply chains, making them particularly sensitive to tariff hikes.
• New laptops, phones, or accessories may see higher price tags as inventories turn over.
• Clothing and footwear — especially items manufactured abroad — are at risk of price increases as the back-to-school shopping season approaches.
• Home goods and appliances are also on forecasters’ radar. If you’re planning renovations or need a new washer or fridge, buying sooner could mean avoiding higher markups later.
• Toys and recreational items could also see upward pressure, potentially affecting holiday shopping spending plans.

Smart moves to protect your budget

1. Shop strategically while prices remain steady: Consider purchasing imported goods you regularly use, such as electronics or household items, while vendors are still working through pre-tariff inventory. But avoid stocking up beyond your budget.
2. Move up large purchases: If you plan to buy a big-ticket item like an appliance or a computer this year, consider buying sooner rather than later. Waiting could mean paying more if tariffs push costs higher later in 2025.
3. Revisit your budget categories: Adjust monthly spending limits on categories like clothing or household products to account for potential price increases. Even a small cushion can prevent unexpected overages.
4. Lock in service rates when possible: Some services or subscriptions allow rate locking or prepayment. If you know you’ll need something soon, securing today’s price can be a smart inflation hedge.
5. Build a tariff buffer: Set aside a small monthly amount specifically to offset future cost increases tied to trade policy. A dedicated fund, separate from your emergency savings, can help absorb surprises without derailing your finances.

Looking beyond the shopping cart

While economists anticipate some upward pressure on prices, there’s no indication of runaway inflation.

Most forecasts still see inflation gradually returning to the Federal Reserve’s 2% target over the long term.

According to CNBC, core price growth is already easing in many categories despite concerns about tariffs, suggesting that any pricing pressure could emerge gradually rather than all at once.

That said, the impact of tariffs will vary depending on your spending habits. Households that rely heavily on imported merchandise may feel the effects more directly.

Now is the time to plan ahead while prices remain relatively stable. A few proactive steps can help shield your budget from potential shocks, especially if you’re counting on summer sales to make your budget go further.