At a rally in Asheville, North Carolina, in August 2024, President Donald Trump pledged to slash energy and electricity prices by half and set a deadline.
“We intend to slash prices in half within 12 months, at a maximum 18 months,” he said, promising rapid approvals for new energy infrastructure and new lands for drilling.
Counted from Inauguration Day, Jan. 20, 2025, the 18-month outer limit ran out in July 2026. Cutting the 2025 national average residential rate of 17.3 cents per kilowatt-hour in half would bring it to about 8.7 cents. Federal forecasters expect 18.2 cents in 2026.
What the bills did
The Energy Information Administration’s Oct. 6 outlook puts the average residential price at 17.3 cents in 2025, 18.2 cents in 2026 and 18.7 cents in 2027.
Take a household that uses 900 kilowatt-hours a month, a round number for illustration. The 0.9-cent jump from 2025 to 2026 adds about $8 a month, or roughly $97 a year.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics measures it differently, and the picture is similar. Its September 2026 Consumer Price Index showed the electricity index up 4.4% over 12 months, while overall prices rose 3.7%.
Electricity is rising faster than the average basket item, not falling by half.
Why rates keep climbing
The forecast does not pin the increase on one cause. It projects wholesale power prices averaging $52 per megawatt-hour in 2026, 11% above 2025, but notes that wholesale prices are “just one component of residential electricity prices.”
Wholesale prices, in turn, are strongly influenced by natural gas prices and weather. Transmission and distribution upgrades, and capacity auction prices in some regions, are also on the list.
Demand is shifting, too. The agency expects residential consumption to stay mostly flat, while commercial demand, which includes data centers, grows 2.8% in 2027 and industrial demand grows 2.7%.
Whether the administration’s energy plan lowers bills over time is a separate question from whether it did so within the window Trump set. On that narrower test, federal data show rates rising.
What you can control
Wholesale prices and grid upgrades are beyond a household’s reach. Usage is not.
Start by lowering your water heater costs. Energy Star estimates a certified dishwasher can cut utility bills by about $220 a year compared with washing dishes by hand.
Before replacing an appliance, enter your ZIP code in Energy Star’s Rebate Finder to see rebates and offers on certified products in your area.
Ask your electric company about budget billing, which spreads high bills evenly across the year, and compare your rate on a recent bill against the national averages above.
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