15 Cities Where Home Prices Are Still Below Their Pre-Great Recession Peak

Editor's Note: This story originally appeared on Construction Coverage.

The residential real estate market in the U.S. experienced an unprecedented spike in home prices between 2020 and 2022, but signs from this spring and summer indicate that the market is cooling off.

Existing home sales in the U.S. have declined for five straight months, including a 5.4% dip in June. Inventory has been increasing while mortgage applications decline as more buyers are priced out by higher prices and rising interest rates. And with the buyers regaining power in the market, houses are staying on the market longer, the rate of home price growth has slowed, and more sellers are lowering prices.

The rapid rise in prices over the last two years and the current slowing of the market have invoked memories of the housing crash of the mid-2000s for many homebuyers and homeowners. A survey earlier this year found that more than 3 in 4 buyers and sellers believed that the U.S. was in the midst of a housing bubble.

Despite these concerns, however, a recent Zillow survey found that 60% of real estate experts believe that recent conditions in the housing market have not produced a bubble. Instead, the experts report that market fundamentals and stronger mortgage lending practices have limited the risk of a bubble. While price growth may continue to slow, the type of major correction seen in the mid-2000s is considered unlikely.

In fact, one of the conditions that has contributed to the current housing boom is a product of the last crash: low inventory. When the collapse of the housing market set off the Great Recession, the construction industry suffered major losses. Many home builders faced steep revenue declines or were wiped out altogether.

To determine the locations where home prices are still below their pre-Great Recession peak, researchers at Construction Coverage calculated the inflation-adjusted percentage change in median home price between June 2022 and the peak month prior to December 2007. Read more about our methodology at the end.

Here are the large U.S. metropolitan areas (population 1 million or more) where home prices are still below their pre-Great Recession peak.

15. Minneapolis-St. Paul, MN

• Percent change in median home price (inflation-adjusted): -6.1%
• Total change in median home price (inflation-adjusted): -$24,479
• Current median home price (2022 dollars): $379,145
• Pre-2008 peak median home price (2022 dollars): $403,624
• Pre-2008 peak median home price (unadjusted dollars): $265,988
• Pre-2008 peak date: December 2005

14. Tucson, AZ

• Percent change in median home price (inflation-adjusted): -6.5%
• Total change in median home price (inflation-adjusted): -$24,002
• Current median home price (2022 dollars): $347,181
• Pre-2008 peak median home price (2022 dollars): $371,183
• Pre-2008 peak median home price (unadjusted dollars): $249,435
• Pre-2008 peak date: May 2006

13. Sacramento, CA

• Percent change in median home price (inflation-adjusted): -8.1%
• Total change in median home price (inflation-adjusted): -$55,097
• Current median home price (2022 dollars): $626,326
• Pre-2008 peak median home price (2022 dollars): $681,423
• Pre-2008 peak median home price (unadjusted dollars): $449,058
• Pre-2008 peak date: December 2005

12. Miami-Fort Lauderdale, FL

• Percent change in median home price (inflation-adjusted): -8.2%
• Total change in median home price (inflation-adjusted): -$40,729
• Current median home price (2022 dollars): $456,489
• Pre-2008 peak median home price (2022 dollars): $497,218
• Pre-2008 peak median home price (unadjusted dollars): $338,108
• Pre-2008 peak date: November 2006

11. Cleveland, OH

• Percent change in median home price (inflation-adjusted): -9.2%
• Total change in median home price (inflation-adjusted): -$22,362
• Current median home price (2022 dollars): $219,635
• Pre-2008 peak median home price (2022 dollars): $241,997
• Pre-2008 peak median home price (unadjusted dollars): $153,426
• Pre-2008 peak date: December 2004

10. Philadelphia, PA

• Percent change in median home price (inflation-adjusted): -10.1%
• Total change in median home price (inflation-adjusted): -$37,912
• Current median home price (2022 dollars): $336,380
• Pre-2008 peak median home price (2022 dollars): $374,292
• Pre-2008 peak median home price (unadjusted dollars): $254,144
• Pre-2008 peak date: October 2006

9. Providence, RI

• Percent change in median home price (inflation-adjusted): -11.9%
• Total change in median home price (inflation-adjusted): -$60,790
• Current median home price (2022 dollars): $449,970
• Pre-2008 peak median home price (2022 dollars): $510,760
• Pre-2008 peak median home price (unadjusted dollars): $336,591
• Pre-2008 peak date: December 2005

8. Detroit, MI

• Percent change in median home price (inflation-adjusted): -13.0%
• Total change in median home price (inflation-adjusted): -$36,393
• Current median home price (2022 dollars): $243,922
• Pre-2008 peak median home price (2022 dollars): $280,315
• Pre-2008 peak median home price (unadjusted dollars): $172,394
• Pre-2008 peak date: December 2003

7. Virginia Beach, VA

• Percent change in median home price (inflation-adjusted): -14.5%
• Total change in median home price (inflation-adjusted): -$55,225
• Current median home price (2022 dollars): $325,380
• Pre-2008 peak median home price (2022 dollars): $380,605
• Pre-2008 peak median home price (unadjusted dollars): $259,192
• Pre-2008 peak date: December 2006

6. New York, NY

• Percent change in median home price (inflation-adjusted): -14.7%
• Total change in median home price (inflation-adjusted): -$105,854
• Current median home price (2022 dollars): $614,826
• Pre-2008 peak median home price (2022 dollars): $720,680
• Pre-2008 peak median home price (unadjusted dollars): $484,297
• Pre-2008 peak date: May 2006

5. Las Vegas, NV

• Percent change in median home price (inflation-adjusted): -15.4%
• Total change in median home price (inflation-adjusted): -$82,677
• Current median home price (2022 dollars): $453,682
• Pre-2008 peak median home price (2022 dollars): $536,359
• Pre-2008 peak median home price (unadjusted dollars): $360,433
• Pre-2008 peak date: May 2006

4. Washington, D.C.

• Percent change in median home price (inflation-adjusted): -20.3%
• Total change in median home price (inflation-adjusted): -$141,503
• Current median home price (2022 dollars): $556,296
• Pre-2008 peak median home price (2022 dollars): $697,799
• Pre-2008 peak median home price (unadjusted dollars): $468,921
• Pre-2008 peak date: May 2006

3. Hartford, CT

• Percent change in median home price (inflation-adjusted): -22.6%
• Total change in median home price (inflation-adjusted): -$94,250
• Current median home price (2022 dollars): $322,838
• Pre-2008 peak median home price (2022 dollars): $417,088
• Pre-2008 peak median home price (unadjusted dollars): $283,203
• Pre-2008 peak date: October 2006

2. Chicago, IL

• Percent change in median home price (inflation-adjusted): -23.7%
• Total change in median home price (inflation-adjusted): -$97,145
• Current median home price (2022 dollars): $312,752
• Pre-2008 peak median home price (2022 dollars): $409,897
• Pre-2008 peak median home price (unadjusted dollars): $275,451
• Pre-2008 peak date: May 2006

1. Baltimore, MD

• Percent change in median home price (inflation-adjusted): -24.6%
• Total change in median home price (inflation-adjusted): -$122,761
• Current median home price (2022 dollars): $377,062
• Pre-2008 peak median home price (2022 dollars): $499,823
• Pre-2008 peak median home price (unadjusted dollars): $339,380
• Pre-2008 peak date: October 2006

Methodology

The data used in this analysis is from Zillow’s Housing Data. To determine the locations where home prices are still below their pre-Great Recession peak, researchers at Construction Coverage calculated the inflation-adjusted percentage change in median home price between June 2022 and the peak month prior to December 2007. In the event of a tie, the location with the lower total change in median home price (inflation-adjusted) was ranked higher. To improve relevance, only metropolitan areas with at least 100,000 residents were included. Additionally, metros were grouped into cohorts based on population size: small (100,000–349,999), midsize (350,000–999,999), and large (1,000,000 or more).