20 Jobs Where COVID-19 Has Impacted Long-Term Growth

This story originally appeared on SmartAsset.com.

While many economists believe that the U.S. economy will return to pre-pandemic levels by late 2021, they are less confident that the job market will bounce back as quickly.

According to February data from the National Association of Business Economics, 82% of economic forecasters surveyed expect real GDP to return to pre-COVID-19 recession levels sometime in 2021.

By contrast, only 59% of respondents anticipate the total number of workers (excluding farm workers) will return to pre-pandemic levels in 2023 or later.

As Americans scramble to boost their savings and map out their job prospects during the pandemic, SmartAsset analyzed Bureau of Labor Statistics data from 720 occupations to project the long-term impact of COVID-19 on the job market.

We compared pre-pandemic and strong pandemic impact projections to determine the jobs that could be affected most positively or negatively by COVID-19. For details on our data sources and how we put all the information together to create our findings, check out the data and methodology section at the end.

Here are the jobs most likely to be positively affected by the pandemic, followed by those most likely to be negatively affected.

1. Epidemiologists

2019-2029 Projected Growth Rate Pre-Pandemic: 4.6%

Moderate Pandemic Impact: 31.0%

Strong Pandemic Impact: 31.2%

Difference: 26.6%

2. Medical Scientists

2019-2029 Projected Growth Rate Pre-Pandemic: 6.1%

Moderate Pandemic Impact: 28.9%

Strong Pandemic Impact: 30.7%

Difference: 24.6%

3. Information Security Analysts

2019-2029 Projected Growth Rate Pre-Pandemic: 31.2%

Moderate Pandemic Impact: 42.1%

Strong Pandemic Impact: 43.0%

Difference: 11.8%

4. Web Developers and Digital Interface Designers

2019-2029 Projected Growth Rate Pre-Pandemic: 8.0%

Moderate Pandemic Impact: 18.8%

Strong Pandemic Impact: 19.3%

Difference: 11.3%

5. Biochemists and Biophysicists

2019-2029 Projected Growth Rate Pre-Pandemic: 4.0%

Moderate Pandemic Impact: 12.1%

Strong Pandemic Impact: 14.7%

Difference: 10.7%

6. Network and Computer Systems Administrators (Tie)

2019-2029 Projected Growth Rate Pre-Pandemic: 4.3%

Moderate Pandemic Impact: 14.1%

Strong Pandemic Impact: 14.5%

Difference: 10.2%

6. Computer Network Architects (Tie)

2019-2029 Projected Growth Rate Pre-Pandemic: 5.0%

Moderate Pandemic Impact: 14.5%

Strong Pandemic Impact: 15.2%

Difference: 10.2%

8. Microbiologists

2019-2029 Projected Growth Rate Pre-Pandemic: 3.1%

Moderate Pandemic Impact: 11.1%

Strong Pandemic Impact: 12.3%

Difference: 9.2%

9. Biological Technicians (Tie)

2019-2029 Projected Growth Rate Pre-Pandemic: 4.9%

Moderate Pandemic Impact: 9.3%

Strong Pandemic Impact: 10.8%

Difference: 5.9%

9. Database Administrators and Architects (Tie)

2019-2029 Projected Growth Rate Pre-Pandemic: 9.7%

Moderate Pandemic Impact: 15.3%

Strong Pandemic Impact: 15.6%

Difference: 5.9%

Jobs Most Likely to Be Negatively Affected

Job growth estimates dropped more than 10 percentage points for 12 jobs.

Notably, there are large differences between the moderate and strong pandemic impact scenarios for many of the jobs likely to be negatively affected.

Following are the jobs most likely to be negatively affected by the continuation of the COVID-19 pandemic and its economic effects.

1. Restaurant, Lounge & Coffee Shop Hosts and Hostesses

2019-2029 Projected Growth Rate Pre-Pandemic: 8.2%

Moderate Pandemic Impact: -10.8%

Strong Pandemic Impact: -18.0%

Difference: -26.2%

2. Bartenders

2019-2029 Projected Growth Rate Pre-Pandemic: 5.9%

Moderate Pandemic Impact: -2.1%

Strong Pandemic Impact: -13.8%

Difference: -19.7%

3. Waiters and Waitresses

2019-2029 Projected Growth Rate Pre-Pandemic: 3.7%

Moderate Pandemic Impact: -5.6%

Strong Pandemic Impact: -12.9%

Difference: -16.6%

4. Reservation & Transportation Ticket Agents and Travel Clerks

2019-2029 Projected Growth Rate Pre-Pandemic: -2.9%

Moderate Pandemic Impact: -11.2%

Strong Pandemic Impact: -19.1%

Difference: -16.2%

5. Hotel, Motel and Resort Desk Clerks

2019-2029 Projected Growth Rate Pre-Pandemic: -6.9%

Moderate Pandemic Impact: -10.9%

Strong Pandemic Impact: -22.0%

Difference: -15.1%

6. Receptionists and Information Clerks

2019-2029 Projected Growth Rate Pre-Pandemic: 3.6%

Moderate Pandemic Impact: -2.2%

Strong Pandemic Impact: -10.4%

Difference: -14.0%

7. Flight Attendants

2019-2029 Projected Growth Rate Pre-Pandemic: 17.3%

Moderate Pandemic Impact: 9.2%

Strong Pandemic Impact: 3.7%

Difference: -13.6%

8. Cashiers

2019-2029 Projected Growth Rate Pre-Pandemic: -7.3%

Moderate Pandemic Impact: -14.1%

Strong Pandemic Impact: -19.7%

Difference: -12.4%

9. Restaurant Cooks

2019-2029 Projected Growth Rate Pre-Pandemic: 23.1%

Moderate Pandemic Impact: 13.9%

Strong Pandemic Impact: 10.9%

Difference: -12.2%

10. Transit and Intercity Bus Drivers

2019-2029 Projected Growth Rate Pre-Pandemic: 9.3%

Moderate Pandemic Impact: 2.7%

Strong Pandemic Impact: -2.6%

Difference: -11.9%

Data and Methodology

Data for this report comes from the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) employment projections. We considered initial 2019-2029 projections that do not account for COVID-19 along with two alternate scenarios: a moderate COVID-19 impact scenario and a strong impact scenario.

The alternate scenarios identify occupations whose employment trajectories are subject to higher levels of uncertainty. The BLS does not intend them to be precise estimates of employment change over the projection period.

To rank the jobs most likely to be positively and negatively affected by COVID-19, we compared pre-COVID-19 pandemic and strong pandemic impact scenario projections for a total of 720 occupations. We calculated the percentage point difference between those two projections.

A positive difference indicates that strong pandemic impact projections are higher than pre-COVID-19 pandemic projections and that those jobs are more likely to be positively affected. A negative difference indicates that strong pandemic impact projections are lower than pre-COVID-19 pandemic projections and that those jobs are more likely to be negatively affected.

Though we did not use the moderate impact scenario numbers in ranking occupations, we used them qualitatively to evaluate less-severe lasting effects of the pandemic on certain jobs.