As Election Day approaches, a lot of things have changed since the last presidential contest in 2020. The COVID-19 pandemic motivated many people to move to new states, and that has changed the political makeup of these places.
Recently, Realtor.com used proprietary data on geographic home shopping trends and 2020 election results at the county level to tease out how changes in the population might alter the political landscape in each state.
Based on its analysis, here are the states that could become more “blue” (more Democratic) and those that may become “red” (more Republican) during this election cycle.
2 swing states that could trend ‘bluer’
Two swing states, Wisconsin and Nevada, could end up with more Democratic voters than in the past, based on the Realtor.com analysis.
However, the prediction about Nevada is a bit of a surprise, as a recent Redfin analysis found that the number of Democrats in Nevada has declined since the 2020 election, as we reported in “2 Swing States That Refuse to Turn ‘Blue’ Despite an Influx of Californians.”
3 swing states that could trend ‘redder’
Three other swing states — Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina — all could turn a bit redder in this election, according to Realtor.com.
Interestingly, North Carolina is one of three states — along with Florida and Texas — that are attracting a lot of both Democratic and Republican homebuyers. Realtor.com notes that politics aside, people are interested in homes in the South due to the warmer climate and more affordable prices there.
Arizona also featured in Redfin’s study about swing states that are holding to their conservative roots despite an influx of Californians, who are generally thought to be more liberal.
6 other states that could trend ‘bluer’
A handful of states across the country appear to be shifting to a bluer hue than in the past, according to the Realtor.com analysis.
Three traditionally red states that might be getting a bit bluer are:
- Alaska
- Florida
- Ohio
Three solidly blue states that might shift to an even deeper shade of blue are:
- Connecticut
- Delaware
- Maine
Additionally, the District of Columbia could become even more blue.
19 other states that could trend ‘redder’
A bunch of states might be trending redder than in the past, according to Realtor.com.
The states that are trending redder include seven traditionally blue states:
- California
- Colorado
- Illinois
- Minnesota
- New York
- Oregon
- Washington
They also include 12 states that are already solidly red:
- Kansas
- Kentucky
- Louisiana
- Missouri
- Nebraska
- North Dakota
- South Carolina
- South Dakota
- Tennessee
- Texas
- Utah
- Wyoming
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