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Obamacare’s sign-up season for 2027 opened Nov. 1. If you retired before 65 and buy your own health insurance, this one has a sharp edge.
Open enrollment runs through Jan. 15, and Dec. 15 is the last day to enroll in or change plans for coverage that starts Jan. 1, according to HealthCare.gov (1).
Benchmark silver premiums are rising 13% on average for 2027, KFF reports. And people with incomes above 400% of the federal poverty level “will be particularly hard hit,” KFF says (2).
Here’s why. Congress didn’t renew the enhanced subsidies that expired at the end of 2025. So premium tax credits are cut off for households above four times the poverty level, KFF Health News reports (3).
For this enrollment season, that line is $63,840 for a single person and $86,560 for a couple (3).
Those figures come straight from the 2026 federal poverty guidelines: $15,960 for one person and $21,640 for two in the 48 contiguous states and D.C. (4). Alaska and Hawaii have higher guidelines (4).
The Trump administration has added new hurdles, too, and credits its anti-fraud efforts for falling enrollment (3).
Some “high-risk” consumers who use an agent, including first-time applicants and people switching agents, must verify their identity through a CMS-approved third party (3). And agents who weren’t registered with the federal marketplace in 2026 can’t help with 2027 enrollments until February at the earliest (3).
I’ve been a CPA since 1981, and this is a cliff. Here’s how steep.
I ran KFF’s marketplace calculator for a 60-year-old couple, both nonsmokers, buying a benchmark silver plan at the national average price for 2027 (6).
- With $86,560 of income, they’d pay about $737 a month for coverage — $8,846 for the year (6).
- With $87,000, they’d get no help at all. They’d pay the full $2,991 a month, or $35,891 for the year (6).
That’s $440 more in income, and about $27,000 more for the same health insurance. Your exact numbers depend on your ages and where you live. But in most states, the line doesn’t move.
Here are 5 ways to stay on the right side of that line.
1. Know which income counts
The marketplace doesn’t count income the way you might guess. HealthCare.gov says to “Include both taxable and non-taxable Social Security income” (5).
It also counts tax-exempt interest, capital gains and “most IRA and 401k withdrawals,” the site says (5).
That municipal bond fund you bought to dodge taxes? Its interest still counts here.
What doesn’t count: gifts, Supplemental Security Income and “qualified distributions from a designated Roth account,” among other items (5).
Deciding which account to tap, and when, is exactly the kind of planning where a second set of eyes pays off.
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2. Estimate your 2027 income now, not in April
Notice the word HealthCare.gov uses when it tells you how to report investment income: “Include expected interest and dividends” (5). You’re estimating the year ahead, not reporting last year.
So add it up before you apply: Social Security for both of you, any pension, interest and dividends, and every IRA withdrawal you’re planning.
If the total lands close to $86,560 for a couple or $63,840 for a single person, you have work to do before you pick a plan (3).
3. Choose which pocket the money comes from
Say you and your spouse need an extra $20,000 next year for a new roof.
Pull it from a traditional IRA, and it counts toward the line (5). Pull it from a designated Roth account as a qualified distribution, and it doesn’t (5).
Spend down money already sitting in a savings account, and you aren’t taking an IRA withdrawal at all. Only the interest that account earns shows up on HealthCare.gov’s list (5).
Same roof. Very different health insurance bill.
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4. Budget for a bigger bill even if you qualify
Staying under the line doesn’t mean you’re off the hook. Most people still get a subsidy, but a less generous one than before the enhanced help expired, KFF Health News reports (3). And benchmark premiums are up 13% on average (2).
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5. Don’t wait until Dec. 15
If you use an agent, new identity checks apply to first-time applicants, people changing states, people switching agents and people paying $30 a month or less, among others (3). If that’s you, build in time.
Same goes if you rely on an agent. Agents who weren’t registered with the federal marketplace in 2026 can’t help with 2027 enrollments until February at the earliest (3).
Give yourself room before the Dec. 15 cutoff for coverage that starts Jan. 1 (1). If your state runs its own marketplace, check its dates, too.
My honest take
Early retirement is a wonderful thing. But if you’re between your last paycheck and Medicare, your income isn’t just a number on a tax return anymore. It’s the price tag on your health insurance.
The good news: you likely have more control over that number than you think. Decide on purpose.
Sources: 1. HealthCare.gov; 2. KFF; 3. KFF Health News, via Texas Public Radio; 4. U.S. Department of Health and Human Services; 5. HealthCare.gov ; 6. KFF Health Insurance Marketplace Calculator
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