President Donald Trump’s on-again, off-again tariffs have caused a lot of angst among consumers and roiled the stock market. No one knows exactly which of the tariffs will remain in place or for how long.
But that hasn’t stopped the Budget Lab at Yale University from hazarding a few guesses about which products may soon see the largest price hikes.
Recently, the research center dedicated to in-depth analysis of federal economic policy proposals forecast that Trump’s tariffs are likely to increase consumer prices by 2.3% in the short term. That translates to an expected loss of purchasing power of $3,800 per household, on average.
However, certain types of products will see much steeper price increases — as high as 18.3%.
According to the Budget Lab, the following commodities are all projected to record price increases that exceed the average of 2.3%:
- Leather products: 18.3%
- Apparel: 16.9%
- Crops not elsewhere classified (NEC): 13.3%
- Metals NEC: 12.3%
- Wool and silkworm cocoons: 10.9%
- Processed rice: 10.3%
- Electrical equipment: 10%
- Textiles: 9.6%
- Motor vehicles and parts: 8.4%
- Machinery and equipment NEC: 6.6%
- Ferrous (iron-containing) metals: 6.5%
- Rubber and plastic products: 6.4%
- Mineral products NEC: 6.4%
- Transport equipment NEC: 6%
- Metal products: 5.8%
- Manufactures NEC: 4.8%
- Computer, electronic and optical: 4.5%
- Fishing: 4%
- Vegetables, fruits and nuts: 4%
- Wood products: 3.3%
- Chemical products: 3.1%
- Beverages and tobacco products: 3.1%
- Food products NEC: 3.1%
- Vegetable oils and fats: 2.8%
- Paper products and publishing: 2.8%
In making its calculations, the Budget Lab incorporated into its modeling both Trump’s April 2 tariff announcement and all other tariffs previously put into place during 2025.
On April 2, which Trump dubbed “Liberation Day,” he unveiled new tariffs, which amount to a 10% minimum tariff on nearly all countries, aside from Canada and Mexico. Many countries — including China — have been hit with tariffs much higher than 10%.
On Wednesday, Trump announced a 90-day halt to tariffs on dozens of nations while the United States negotiates new trade deals with those countries. In a social media post, he also said that he was going to raise the tariffs on China to 125%.
To learn how you can avoid tariff-related higher prices, check out “7 Types of Groceries That Are Immune to Tariff-Induced Price Hikes” and “7 Ways to Dodge Price Hikes As Trump’s Tariffs Expand.”
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