If you live anywhere near a close race, you know the drill. You sit down to watch the evening news, and before the first commercial break ends, you’ve been told that both candidates are liars, crooks and a threat to everything you hold dear.
I’ve been watching these ads for more than 50 years, and I can’t name one that changed my vote. Turns out I’m not special. The research says most of us aren’t being swayed.
Here’s the bill for all that noise. Ad tracker AdImpact projects political advertising in the 2026 cycle will hit $11.6 billion, the most ever. That tops the $11.2 billion spent in the 2024 presidential cycle and runs about 30% above the old midterm record of $8.9 billion, set in 2022.
So what are donors getting for their money? Not much. A study of 49 field experiments, published in the American Political Science Review in 2018, concluded that the best estimate of how much campaign contact and advertising sway votes in general elections is zero.
Zero.
The ads may do slightly better at one thing: getting people to the polls. Katherine Haenschen, an associate professor of communication studies and political science at Northeastern University, told the school’s news service that research suggests that if ads lift turnout at all, it’s by only about 1%.
With so much money thrown at ads and so little proof they work, she said, campaigns might be “lighting their money on fire.”
One fair point before we go on: this money comes from donors, parties and outside groups. It’s theirs to spend, and nobody can simply redirect it to a food bank.
But that’s exactly why it’s worth asking what else it could buy. The people writing these checks had choices. So for scale, here’s how $11.6 billion stacks up against a few federal programs — and against simply mailing the money back to you.
1. A full year of SNAP benefits for more than 5 million people
SNAP, the program once known as food stamps, paid the average participant $188 a month in fiscal 2025, according to USAFacts, which compiles federal data. That works out to $2,256 a year.
Divide $11.6 billion by $2,256 and you get enough to cover the entire grocery benefit for more than 5.1 million people for a full year.
Think about that the next time you hit mute on a 30-second attack ad.
2. Six weeks of food aid for every SNAP recipient in America
Now think bigger. About $95 billion of federal SNAP spending in fiscal 2025 went to monthly benefits. That’s roughly $7.9 billion a month.
So $11.6 billion would cover every SNAP benefit in the country — for the roughly 42 million people who get them — for about six weeks.
3. More than 2 1/2 years of federal help for the homeless
Congress gave HUD’s Homeless Assistance Grants about $4.4 billion for fiscal 2026, according to the Senate Appropriations Committee. That money pays for housing and services for people with nowhere to live.
At that rate, $11.6 billion would fund those grants for more than 2 1/2 years.
One thing before we keep going — the financial world is louder and dumber than ever. Hot takes everywhere. Almost none of it is worth your time. I’ve spent 35+ years cutting through the noise so you don’t have to. Sign up for the free Money Talks Newsletter — 10 seconds, no spam, just the stuff that matters.
4. Nearly three years of energy help for low-income families
The Low Income Home Energy Assistance Program helps low-income households pay their utility bills. Congress gave it $4.045 billion for fiscal 2026, and nearly 6 million households got help over the past year, according to Sen. Susan Collins’ office.
Put $11.6 billion there instead, and you’d fund the program for nearly three years. That’s nearly three winters of keeping the heat on.
5. About $86 for every household in the country
Or skip the middlemen entirely. The Census Bureau counted about 134.8 million U.S. households in 2025, according to data published by the St. Louis Fed. Split $11.6 billion evenly, and every one of them gets about $86.
That won’t change anybody’s life. But I’d bet most people would rather have the $86 than the ads.
Why this keeps happening
Nobody running these campaigns is stupid. Haenschen notes that even small effects can matter when an election is close, and in a tight race, a sliver of turnout can decide who wins.
Meanwhile, there’s almost no ceiling on what outside groups can spend chasing that sliver. Super PACs can raise unlimited sums from individuals, corporations and unions. The money keeps coming because the system lets it.
And the biggest winners? Broadcast TV stations, which AdImpact projects will collect about $5.6 billion this cycle. Don’t expect the folks airing these ads to complain.
What you can actually do
You can’t stop the TV ads. You can push back on the texts.
Campaign calls and texts are exempt from the National Do Not Call Registry, according to the Federal Communications Commission. But political texts sent to your cellphone by an autodialer require your prior consent, and campaigns are supposed to honor a STOP reply.
Texts typed and sent by a real person don’t need your consent, so some will still slip through. If you’re getting texts you never asked for, forward them to 7726 — it spells SPAM — to report the sender.
For more ways to fight back, here are 8 ways to shut down the spam texts and robocalls that are driving you crazy. And if you have an iPhone, these settings can screen and silence robocalls before they ever ring.
Finally, if you’ve got money to give, give it where you can see it work: a local food bank, a shelter, a fund that helps neighbors pay heating bills. Starting this year, even people who don’t itemize can deduct some cash gifts to charity.
Then vote however you see fit. Just don’t let a 30-second ad make the decision for you.
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