5 Housing Markets at ‘Very High’ Risk of Falling

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Tacoma at night
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U.S. home values continued to grow on a year-over-year basis in September but declined a bit from where they were in August, according to property analytics firm CoreLogic.

From September 2021 to September 2022, home values jumped 11.4% nationwide. However, prices in September slid 0.5% compared with where they were in August.

After years of soaring home prices, a few U.S. markets are especially vulnerable to price declines, CoreLogic says. Following are the places in the greatest danger of slipping over the next 12 months.

Tacoma, Washington

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This housing market’s likelihood of a price decline over the next 12 months: Very high (more than 70% probability)

At the end of September, we noted that Tacoma was among the “10 Housing Markets That Are Cooling Fastest.”

Affordability has become a major issue in the city so some homebuyers might welcome a modest decline in prices.

Eugene, Oregon

Eugene, Oregon
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This housing market’s likelihood of a price decline over the next 12 months: Very high (more than 70% probability)

Homes in Eugene are staying on the market longer as inventory levels also are increasing.

Those factors already have caused a modest dip in home prices in this city that is best known as the home to the University of Oregon.

Bellingham, Washington

Western Washington University at Bellingham, Washington
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This housing market’s likelihood of a price decline over the next 12 months: Very high (more than 70% probability)

The number of million-dollar homes in Whatcom County — where Bellingham is located — has doubled since 2019. Now, less than half of owner-occupied homes in this area of northwestern Washington state are valued at less than $500,000.

But those sky-high prices might be dropping back to earth soon, CoreLogic says.

Bremerton-Silverdale, Washington

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This housing market’s likelihood of a price decline over the next 12 months: Very high (more than 70% probability)

A major housing shortage has caused significant pain for homebuyers in many cities in the Pacific Northwest, including Bremerton. That has pushed home prices higher here.

But as with so many housing markets across the nation, the script is flipping, putting this market in great jeopardy of a price correction. Such a price decline might bring some relief to folks looking for a home.

Crestview-Fort Walton Beach-Destin, Florida

Houses on the beach in Destin, Florida
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This housing market’s likelihood of a price decline over the next 12 months: Very high (more than 70% probability)

Mortgage demand in this part of Florida is now slipping, thanks to rising interest rates. As real estate agent Amanda Grandy told a local TV station:

“New mortgage originations are down about 50 percent, so if you talk to any lender today they are down half of their business.”

However, even if home prices slip, Grandy says buyers can expect the cost of homeowners insurance to soar, thanks to storms such as Hurricane Ian.

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